The Mockingbird

Janssen Done For Season

with 5 comments

Casey Janssen’s shoulder is going under the knife and he is done for the season. The operation is to fix his Labrum, which is probably even worse than “just” needing Tommy John surgery. It depends on how serious it is, but these days labrum tears are the career killers. I quote:

…if pitchers with torn labrums were horses, they’d be destroyed. Of the 36 major-league hurlers diagnosed with labrum tears in the last five years, only midlevel reliever Rocky Biddle has returned to his previous level. Think about that when your favorite pitcher comes down with labrum trouble: He has a 3 percent chance of becoming Rocky Biddle.

To put it another way, a Labrum tear pulls a CHACIN on your career. A SIROTKA, even. The Jays have some depth and/or time to replace him for the coming season, but I feel for Casey- he has a long road to recovery and this couldn’t have happened to a nicer kid.

On a brighter note, a lot of number crunchers have good things to say about Armando Benitez (or at least the chance for him belonging in a major league bullpen next year). Bill James is the most optimistic and projects him as having a sub-4.00 ERA next year.

The Graphical Player looks at each pitcher’s BABIP (which hovers around .300 for all pitchers from season to season but was .342 while he was with Florida in 2007) and strand rate to figure out how lucky a pitcher got and has the following to say:

That lonely star in Career Fortunes drives home the oddity of this season. If Benitez can get healthy, there’s beaucoup upside. Great reserve pick.

Sure he has a long list of memorable blown saves, but he’s also the 12th or so man in the bullpen. You can never have too many guys who throw 94-95 in AAA sign for absolutely nothing, and Armando’s gaudy numbers last year were heavily influenced by luck.

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Written by halejon

March 12, 2008 at 2:59 pm

Posted in Seriousness

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5 Responses

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  1. This is quite disappointing. I thought Janssen could be either decent starter, like a Paul Byrd; or a good reliever, like Paul Quantrill. I hope he’s one of the 3 percent.

    Chris

    March 12, 2008 at 4:01 pm

  2. The next wave of updates will undoubtedly zero in on how the shoulder pain he had last year was overlooked. This really is a crying shame.

    johnny was

    March 12, 2008 at 5:19 pm

  3. If we need more rotation depth, I think David Wells is still available.
    Am I kidding? Who knows!

    Torgen

    March 12, 2008 at 6:31 pm

  4. On the “frayed” labrum thing… It’s the same as a tear. I was reading an article yesterday about Troy Glaus’ “frayed” labrum… And they said it’s all a front. It means the same thing, and is just as serious.

    The more I read about it, the more optimistic I am. Apparently with rest they’ll even regrow and heal themselves, which is good. The surgery speeds up the process though and makes it more likely that they’ll be themselves again.

    And I felt better seeing that it was the better of the two tears. I was reading about both, and was hoping that it was that. Meh… I’m going to stay optimistic. It’s the better kind of tear, he’s still young, and we know he’s not going to give up.

    Lindsay

    March 13, 2008 at 4:42 pm

  5. Mostly I’m just sad for Casey, who seems like a great guy. I really hope the treatment is successful enough for him to continue playing.

    I’m also a little concerned the Jays will do something dumb like trade Adam Lind and David Purcey for Jason Marquis and then give him an ironclad spot in the rotation, but JP’s comments don’t suggest he is contemplating such a thing. I wonder if someone would give up a AAA depth-type starter for Reed Johnson. It would be nice to have some more depth for the inevitable injury to a Jays starter and/or as insurance for Litsch. Josh Towers anyone?

    hugo

    March 17, 2008 at 4:58 pm


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