Janssen Done For Season
Casey Janssen’s shoulder is going under the knife and he is done for the season. The operation is to fix his Labrum, which is probably even worse than “just” needing Tommy John surgery. It depends on how serious it is, but these days labrum tears are the career killers. I quote:
…if pitchers with torn labrums were horses, they’d be destroyed. Of the 36 major-league hurlers diagnosed with labrum tears in the last five years, only midlevel reliever Rocky Biddle has returned to his previous level. Think about that when your favorite pitcher comes down with labrum trouble: He has a 3 percent chance of becoming Rocky Biddle.
To put it another way, a Labrum tear pulls a CHACIN on your career. A SIROTKA, even. The Jays have some depth and/or time to replace him for the coming season, but I feel for Casey- he has a long road to recovery and this couldn’t have happened to a nicer kid.
- Update: On the other hand, J.P. says: “The good news is he should be totally fine, bounce back…we’ll have him back healthy next year and just give him a long rehab process and he should be 100 per cent to go.” And some random doctor still puts the odds at 50-50 to recover. “Is there really a good kind of Labrum tear or is J.P. talking out of his ass? I’m not a doctor.
- I may not be a doctor, but at least I wouldn’t prescribe a wacky soy and lentil combination as a radical shoulder therapy breakthrough. Ha!
On a brighter note, a lot of number crunchers have good things to say about Armando Benitez (or at least the chance for him belonging in a major league bullpen next year). Bill James is the most optimistic and projects him as having a sub-4.00 ERA next year.
The Graphical Player looks at each pitcher’s BABIP (which hovers around .300 for all pitchers from season to season but was .342 while he was with Florida in 2007) and strand rate to figure out how lucky a pitcher got and has the following to say:
That lonely star in Career Fortunes drives home the oddity of this season. If Benitez can get healthy, there’s beaucoup upside. Great reserve pick.
Sure he has a long list of memorable blown saves, but he’s also the 12th or so man in the bullpen. You can never have too many guys who throw 94-95 in AAA sign for absolutely nothing, and Armando’s gaudy numbers last year were heavily influenced by luck.