The Mockingbird

An Unpopular Stance

with 13 comments

Remember last year when Mickey Brantley was history’s greatest monster for his “swing for the fences” philosophy, and having two walk-or-strikeout guys in the middle of the lineup was every hack’s favorite reason for why the team couldn’t hit with RISP? (even though they could). Shorten that swing, keep things moving by spraying balls to the opposite field, that’s the way to run an offense! Boy did a lot of fans get their wish, and boy does a team that can’t hit home runs to save their life suck.

Anyway, the poster boy for the Jays’ power outage this season has been Alex Rios, who is single handedly breathing life back into the home run derby curse. In 569 at bats since he came in second last year, he has 10 home runs. Not that the homer is everything, but his power has completely vanished to the point where he is a substantially below-average right fielder at the plate (OPS of .708 compared to league average of .824). To put things in perspective, Vernon Wells’ OPS was .706 last year. We are looking at a Wellsesque collapse in the outfield, again.

So, in a series of posts over the next few weeks I’m going to painstakingly analyze Rios’ contact, misses, HR and BABIP rate for every quadrant using pitch f/x…no, wait. I’m just going to rip off Fox Sports:

Maybe we should start calling him the “little hurt”, because just a hunch- he might be having trouble reaching the outside half of the plate.

As everyone has noticed this year, Rios is starting his swing from a much deeper crouch. Now I’m no batting coach (and I think it’s stupid the way people think they can sum up all his mechanical problems with a hitting cliche like “weight transfer” or “driving off the back foot” from TV replays), but I’m pretty sure the idea of the power crouch is that you end up in the same hitting position on contact that you would normally. But look at Rios’ front leg and torso on this upper deck drive from last season:

And then this one (his pinch hit HR) that just crept out over the wall this year:

Again, I’m no hitting coach but I don’t think that can be good for a power hitter. This was in no way an outside pitch, and it looks like he’s bending over rather unnaturally to reach it instead of leaning over the plate. It’s a slightly different camera angle so it’s hard to get an idea of how far he is from the plate (and that’s going to be a matter of inches anyway).

These two things have to be related. I would give my right arm for a sit-down session with Gary Denbo to talk about what he’s changed with Rios since last season, why he thinks he’s slumping so far and where to go from here. Forget Gibby and his wacky lineups- if you really want a goat, go for a much more important (but still probably meaningless) figurehead, the guy who is shepherding what should be a franchise player hitting his prime on his way to a 6 HR season.

Written by halejon

June 17, 2008 at 6:02 pm

Posted in Seriousness

13 Responses

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  1. Why is the hot zone display set at McAfee Coliseum?

    Torgen

    June 17, 2008 at 6:39 pm

  2. Wow, that’s some eye you’ve got there…

    halejon

    June 17, 2008 at 7:31 pm

  3. Unlike the Jays. Oh snap!

    Torgen

    June 17, 2008 at 8:29 pm

  4. When in the year was that first homer?

    Torgen

    June 17, 2008 at 9:57 pm

  5. yeah but were those pitches in the same location?

    Dougie B

    June 17, 2008 at 10:21 pm

  6. That was Jesse Litsch’s first start. So May 15th, against Daniel Cabrera.

    Jon

    June 17, 2008 at 10:38 pm

  7. Torgen is a joker. I look forward to learning all about the suckage that is Alex Rios. His at-bat tonight in the 7th, with runners on the corners, was absolutely atrocious. Another shutout, and only four hits. And the Brewskies hit four freaking home runs. Ugh.

    eyebleaf

    June 17, 2008 at 10:38 pm

  8. Dougie: Actually, the one where he’s leaning way over this year was a lot further inside. It was at px=”-0.667″, so 8 inches from the middle of the plate towards him, on the very edge of the strike zone. The one against Cabrera from last year was px=”-0.067″, so under an inch inside and pretty much right down the middle. I’ll elaborate with a graphy thing as soon as I stop slashing my wrists over tonight’s incredibly lame spectacle.

    Eyebleaf: Ugh, that made me want to kill. His at bat earlier in the game with two men on was not much better. He reminds me of Vernon last year- misses the one good pitch that he should really have crushed and then gets played like a fiddle and looks terrrrrrible when he’s behind in the count.

    halejon

    June 17, 2008 at 10:49 pm

  9. Oh and I don’t blame you for turning it off before Frasor in the 9th but I’m pretty sure the Brewcrew hit 5.

    halejon

    June 17, 2008 at 10:49 pm

  10. Do you have one of a Rios homer from post-ASG last year? Does he look like last year Rios or this year Rios?

    Torgen

    June 17, 2008 at 11:28 pm

  11. 5 home runs…just wonderful…that’s like our quota for a week and a half…

    eyebleaf

    June 17, 2008 at 11:59 pm

  12. Post-ASL looks a lot more like this year. Although he’s rarely as upright as that one that he hammered into the upper deck, his front leg looks stiff and jutting out backwards during his drought and more of a lean. Probably a symptom rather than the disease, though.

    Jon

    June 18, 2008 at 12:34 am

  13. good site.

    eli

    June 18, 2008 at 4:01 pm


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