The Mockingbird

In Rod We Trust

with 13 comments

Just a few loose ends…

  • John Parrish just broke a Chiefs record by going 9-0. Remember the days of Jeff Tam, Juan Acevedo, etc, etc, when every bullpen reclamation/”lightning in a bottle” attempt of J.P.’s went to hell? He seems to have found his Midas touch (if only it worked on castoff outfielders) and the Chiefs have the best ERA in the international league on the backs of all those mediocre arms we all wondered why the heck the Jays were stockpiling in spring training. It’s scary to think how much an early-30’s, mediocre but decent peripheral Lefty starter like Parrish would cost on the free agent market. Heck, the team is paying Gustavo Chacin over a mil for an +8 ERA in AA just because he’s a southpaw with some wins.
  • Parrish isn’t just racking up the most useless stat (W’s) in baseball, he’s also second in the league in K’s. David Purcey however is third, and has fewer walks. Despite his 5-4 record, he’s actually having a much better year and we would all probably be going crazy at him finally putting it together as a legitimate prospect waiting in the wings if the Jays’ rotation wasn’t already stellar. I know, I know…he had no control in his short time in the bigs and some people think his control problems haven’t gone away. But 22 in almost 70 innings? I’ll take 10.
  • Speaking of short stints, Adam Lind is still crushing the ball, leading the International league in average, with power. But don’t worry, Stew and his .628 OPS will be back to fill the recent vacancy in LF in 15 days or so, and until then Brad Wilkerson and his .658 OPS is actually an improvement (*shudder*). Maybe we can even give them some more time at leadoff because these guys need to get as many AB’s as possible so they can magically regain their form of 3-4 years ago. #@$@%!
  • Gregg Zaun is almost ready to return. Yay? I think it’s self congratulatory time…I seem to recall when he was signed, Wilner made a crack about Barajas being a minor upgrade over Fasano, and Griffin chirped up about the message this sends because the moustachio man was unhappy. Only your dear Bird (and a Drunk or two) pointed out that maybe career numbers weren’t the way to go here and Barajas wasn’t such a terrible (or meaningless) cheap pickup.

Not that I am in ANY WAY suggesting that Barajas is going to keep anything resembling his current pace up, but in a giant fit of I told you so, I’d like to point out that Sal Fasano is currently hitting .186 in AAA. And what’s worse, he’s even shaved his upper lip and now looks like an old, sad man.

Written by halejon

June 10, 2008 at 1:21 pm

Posted in Seriousness

13 Responses

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  1. He looks kinda like Shawn Camp.

    Torgen

    June 10, 2008 at 1:57 pm

  2. Can we please discuss the decision by Gibbons to pinch-hit for Stairs with John McDonald yesterday and then asking McDonald to bunt???? What isn’t wrong with that line of thinking?

    Richard Pollock

    June 10, 2008 at 8:56 pm

  3. What’s so bad about that? Down by one against a tough bullpen so they decide to play for one run. It kind of looks weird, but Stairs is BRUTAL against LHP and Mac is as good a bunter as they come. Do you think it was too early to bunt, or just you’d never replace a Stairs AB with a sac?

    Jon

    June 10, 2008 at 9:41 pm

  4. His career OPS against LHP isn’t that bad. Bunting is a waste of an out; Especially in the 7th inning with runners on 1st and 2nd.

    Richard Pollock

    June 10, 2008 at 10:47 pm

  5. I think just dismissing the bunt as always a waste of an out is a little much. And why especially then? If you’re going to bunt, first and second down by one is the all-time best time to do it because you get out of the DP as well as setting up a sac fly/2 run single. Check out this % chance of scoring runs by state:

    http://tangotiger.net/RE9902score.html

    Which says that a (successful) bunt there increases the probability of scoring one run in the inning from 0.219 to 0.285, and the probability of scoring two from 0.165 to 0.218.

    A win expectancy chart also says the chance of winning goes up- albeit imperceptably- from 0.545 to 0.546 after a bunt in that situation.

    http://www.tangotiger.net/welist.html

    Add the Jays’ lights-out bullpen and Stairs’ penchant for grounding into double plays this year and I think it’s a solid move in that situation. And I’m noooooooo fan of the bunt…

    halejon

    June 10, 2008 at 11:50 pm

  6. If you are playing to tie the game I can see the merit, but even then I don’t agree. But it was the 7th inning. The bunt and using the pinch-hitter to execute it also led to another lost at-bat for Stairs.

    Richard Pollock

    June 11, 2008 at 12:32 am

  7. Also, Baseball Prospectus Run Expectancy from 2008 says that your chances of scoring decrease with runners on 2nd and 3rd and 1 out as opposed to 1st and 2nd and 0 outs.

    http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/sortable/index.php?cid=204022

    Richard Pollock

    June 11, 2008 at 12:51 am

  8. holy shit, fasano looks nothing like the sal i grew to love during his short stint here in toronto…he looks kind of creepy, actually….

    eyebleaf

    June 11, 2008 at 1:02 am

  9. Yah, I agree that it’s a bit of a desperation move to tie the game just because Washburn was shutting them down. And even most people who know that you’re supposed to only bunt “late” think that the 7th counts when it really doesn’t quite unless you’ve got a garbage hitter up. But compared to Eckstein laying one down in the 2nd, or the call-in crowd asking for Rios or Rolen to squeeze for the first time in their lives, I’m not going to complain there…

    halejon

    June 11, 2008 at 1:08 am

  10. But run expectancy is different- that’s the average number of runs scored from that point on in the inning, not the “chance of scoring”. The total run expectancy goes up because although the chance of scoring once or twice goes up, but the chance of scoring 3+ goes way down. But 3+ is most likely overkill in that situation (although not necessarily with the average bullpen, which is why win expectancy says your chance of winning is the same both ways even though you’re more likely to end the inning tied or winning after a bunt).

    Those charts are great for showing that you can’t “manufacture” more runs in the long run by bunting, but they don’t address the possibility of playing for one or two runs in high leverage situations, when a bunt might be 100% a no-brainer right call. Although as you point out, that was borderline.

    halejon

    June 11, 2008 at 1:16 am

  11. I know, it’s freaky. It’s like the first time my dad shaved and I swear to god I didn’t recognize the man.

    halejon

    June 11, 2008 at 1:18 am

  12. You raise good pts Jon. Good dialogue on this blog. Now we can move on to Benitez being in there on Friday in a crucial situation, then on the waiver wire the next day, or Shannon Stewart being on the team period or…. it goes on and on.

    Richard Pollock

    June 11, 2008 at 2:00 am

  13. Oboy. The big guns. I’ve got nothing.🙂

    I just don’t get Stewart. He’s been a pet peeve of mine from day one- I hate to wish ill on anyone but his sprain being more serious than they thought is a blessing. It was so painful when he hit an empty .300 (STILL not good enough for a corner OF) for a month and all of a sudden he was being pumped as the offensive saviour with Wells out. Reminds me of guys like Darrin Erstad having a career 7 years after they were good. I thought J.P. was supposed to be analytical and beyond all that crap.

    The Southpaw nailed it on Benitez, and also pointed out that by messing around with Wolfe for a couple of days they wasted one of his option years. I think that might have been a case of being mislead by a decent ERA over a small sample size. He wasn’t throwing as hard, his movement was junk, and location was never his strong suit. Total ticking time bomb.

    Lind? Did you say Lind? Oh yeah, that guy…3-4 again today. Sighhhhhhhh.

    halejon

    June 11, 2008 at 2:27 am


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