The Mockingbird

Time to Find a New Position to Score From

with 11 comments

According to Mike Wilner, the Jays are now 11 for their last 100 at bats with runners in scoring position. Theories abound, but what are the chances that could happen by luck alone? If you assume that their season average of .256 is their real level of performance, according to the binomial distribution function that chance of 11 or fewer hits is 0.000246%, or 1 in 4064*. Yikes. Tomorrow I calculate the exact number of minutes the 2008 Blue Jays have taken off my life.

The most heartbreaking moment came in the 8th with the bases loaded, two out, and Adam Lind at the plate. He seemed to have placed one between the third baseman and shortstop, but Tony Pena Jr. slid into the hole and threw from his knees (video)- a move blatantly ripped off from John McDonald. Incidentally, if the gold gloves were actually based on, you know, the best fielder at every position, the numbers say they would be a competition between Mac and Pena Jr.

*That’s a little misleading because there are so many AB so it should happen about once every 3 seasons, but isn’t it a cool number??


Written by halejon

April 26, 2008 at 11:45 pm

Posted in Seriousness

11 Responses

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  1. There’s only a 33% chance that a team that should win 60% of the time will have a 6game losing streak in a 162 game season. For a 7 game losing streak, it’s 15%.


    April 27, 2008 at 3:01 am

  2. Aren’t you skewing the numbers even more to take their overall average AFTER that slide? Hadn’t you ought to figure that probability based on what their avg w/RISP was BEFORE the last 100 opportunities?


    April 27, 2008 at 3:56 pm

  3. I mean, it’s clear that the post title was a joke, but Rios scored from first on a Rolen single today.


    April 27, 2008 at 5:08 pm

  4. Hahaha, well I guess that’s what it takes. Just keep running. What a brutal play by Guillen.


    April 27, 2008 at 11:41 pm

  5. I liked how they scored from first on a single, and didn’t score from second on a double.

    Matthew King

    April 28, 2008 at 12:07 pm

  6. Well, that’s the way the Yankees typically score runs. And we’re never going to be able to keep up to them by doing that, so we have to find an alternative method.


    April 28, 2008 at 3:41 pm

  7. We’ve passed the 400 AB plateau with the Runners on/Empty split.

    With no runners on base: .272/.363/.388 OPS 109
    With runners on: .243/.329/.356 OPS 91

    They are 56/260 with RISP (.215) for the season.

    The real problem IMHO, is hitting with 2 outs.

    0 outs: .252/.353/.385 OPS 106 (.277 BABIP)
    1 outs: .298/.369/.406 OPS 116 (.319)
    2 outs: .218/.312/.317 OPS 75 (.248)

    It’s a coincidence that most of our RISP have come with 2 outs. There are a lot of ways to manufacture runs… one of them involves wasting 2 outs moving a leadoff to 3rd. You then have to rely on the batter to safely hit in order to score the run. The Jays have been a little unlucky with their 2 out hits, a little lucky with their 1 out hits, and right on normal with their 0 out actions.

    Also, Boston has a .350 BABIP with RISP so you can argue their success is largely luck driven. It’s funny what a bad or good couple of weeks can do for a fan’s psyche. And the stats.


    April 28, 2008 at 4:03 pm

  8. One thing to keep in mind is that batters ALWAYS hit better with runners on base (any runners) due to the defensive disruption. So those numbers with runners on are actually pretty bad.

    Is it a coincidence? More RISP opportunities have to come with 2 outs because there so many at bats mixed in with 0 outs leading off the inning, and batters get moved along with “productive” outs over an inning. And if you can’t drive in runners, period, then you’re going to get more chances with them with two outs. I mean, if you hit 0/100 (or, errr…11/100), then every double you get before 2 outs is going to be a RISP with 2 outs as well. I know what you’re saying, but it’s a bit of a chicken and egg situation here unless there’s somewhere to get a split by risp and outs.

    And BABIP isn’t glued to .300 like it is for pitchers, so if Boston is hitting .350 you could also argue that they’re just really good hitters so far…

    All this happened last year as well, and people freaked out, and then they ended up really good with RISP on average. And lazy reporters STILL refer to their problems with RISP last year.


    April 28, 2008 at 6:27 pm

  9. Last year Vernon caught the flu (or at least, missed games with flu-like symptoms) at the end of April/start of May and we went on a 9 game losing streak. This year Vernon and Rios caught the flu (or at least, missed games with flu-like symptoms) late in April and we went on a 6 game losing streak. Oh, also, multiple Red Sox have missed games with flu-like symptoms and the Red Sox have gone on a 6 game losing streak. Maybe next year, invest in some flu shots?


    April 28, 2008 at 6:59 pm

  10. Or add a germ warfare lab to our offensive arsenal?

    johnny was

    April 28, 2008 at 7:40 pm

  11. Well, it seems like our long (inter)national nightmare might be over. This might not be the worst time to play Boston, they just got swept by the Rays, aren’t hitting well (although Lowell and Papi will be back, neither has been raking), and we miss Beckett and Buchholz. As stated above, they’ve been hit by a similar flu bug as well. We need to get back to .500 as soon as possible, can’t linger under that line like we did last season for way too long. I guess the climb back starts tomorrow, luckily we don’t have too far to go.


    April 28, 2008 at 10:06 pm

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