The Mockingbird

Do the Jays get Shut Down by Lousy Pitchers?

with 6 comments

This is very similar to a post here. The source data (it’s a little old) can be found in a spreadsheet here.

First, the # of times that a pitcher in the labeled ERA ranges has shut down the Jays to less than 3 runs:


That’s a little useless though because each range has a different number of pitchers in it (you can get an idea of how many by the distance between bars though). A little clearer is the % of times that a pitcher in each group has shut down the Jays- and instead of using 1 or two runs, I’ve defined that as less than an ERA of 3 if they had pitched the entire game.


This uses the same groups, I’m just too lazy to mark them again. Again, except for Jackson and Weaver in the 5.26-5.75 range, nothing really stands out here, and the Jays get shut down at a steadily increasing clip as the opposing pitchers get better. Everything just seems more frustrating and ironic when your team can’t hit period (see: Jays’ “lack of clutch hitting” when they hit a LOT better with RISP).


Written by halejon

September 13, 2007 at 8:53 pm

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  1. Well, I guess nothing really conclusive. Maybe you should try the reverse stat, where you see which pitchers the Jays really put a beating on. (I would bet we do a lot better against pitchers who rely mostly on their fastball).


    September 14, 2007 at 8:49 pm

  2. Yeah, I think this is all just a red herring…we hit poor pitchers about as well as we should, we beat poor teams about as well as we should…it just hurts more when you don’t and you remember it for weeks and then expect it to happen again and remember it even more when it finally does….”expectation bias” is one of my favorite poker/life truisms.

    Maybe once I get the pitch database done (if you haven’t seen this yet, run!!!) I could track that…kinda hard to quantify who relies on their fastball a lot right now. According to baseball reference, the Jays have trouble with power pitchers and hit finesse pitchers really well (read: soft tossing lefties), and have trouble with fly ball pitchers but hit ground ball pitchers well (which makes sense since the team is all about warning track power this year).

    Hahaha….and down to .177 in the 9th inning, oh lord that’s sick.


    September 14, 2007 at 9:01 pm

  3. That pitch database looks impressive! Do warn us when it’s complete.


    September 17, 2007 at 6:35 pm

  4. Keep your eyes open in 2009…I’m a good ways done with the Jays, but don’t think I’m going to insert the game data for every team, every game this year unless someone pays me.

    Working on a algorithm right now that can work across pitchers by comparing break and speed to their fastballs and automatically figure out what each pitch is. It’s a lot harder than I expected.


    September 17, 2007 at 8:02 pm

  5. Jesus shit, you’re actually doing it. That’s an impressive equation to tackle. So many pitchers, speeds, release points.

    How are you going differentiate with so many variables, so many different guys? I’m sure cutters, look like other guy’s change-ups or curves. I’d totally sit down and brainstorm this weekend if you want?


    September 18, 2007 at 3:47 pm

  6. Hey, I didn’t say it was going to WORK. 😉

    I think the way to go is key off the fastball. If one guy throws a pitch that’s 10 mph slower than his fastball and breaks left and it’s a curve and another guy does that with his cutter, then oh well…but that’s not such a terrible result anyway.

    You can also try to differentiate between the two by using the total break amount, which is different from the movement. It’s the maximum amount that a pitch differentiates from a straight line, so it’s basically the amount of “loop” in the pitch.

    It’s not easy though…I was looking at Litsch’s pitches last night. What I’m pretty sure is his sinker actually cuts in more than his cutter. And his Curve isn’t that far off when it’s not working.

    I didn’t think of using release points…are they really that consistent, though? Look at that thing I did on AJ, I’m sure other guys are all over the place as well.


    September 18, 2007 at 6:48 pm

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