I couldn’t believe it. Going on 30+ innings without scoring a run, the 8^th unassisted triple play in AL history, a wasted Burnett gem, and 8 innings of 2-hit, no-walk ball from the Jays best player so far this season, Shaun Marcum. If we hadn’t scored a run, I probably would’ve written the most intelligible, profanity-laced tirade imaginable. Nothing cures that burning, itching sensation better then watching Aaron Hill actually managing to cash a couple runners in scoring position with 2 outs (Lyle, I know it’s a small sample size, but 0-10 just doesn’t cut the mustard). Instead today, we have much better, barely-noticed story – that the bloggers up in Ottawa will love.

Luke Carlin.

A close friend, and catcher of my brother from his university days (a main reason he chose Northeastern), and back in Ottawa with the Nationals – proved that sometimes you just have to root for the little guy. Originally drafted in 2002, in the 10^th round by the Detroit Tigers. An unfortunate choice of subject material on an annual rookie “skit night”, lead to his release early in 2003. He was quickly picked-up by the Padres as a Minor League free agent, some of the other guys that night weren’t so lucky. Not heralded on any prospect lists, he’s been a career minor leaguer and the back-up catcher with the Triple-A Portland Beavers. Until this week.

An outstanding receiver, Luke has one of the best arms behind the plate I’ve ever seen (in 2005 with Double-A Mobile, he threw out an amazing 36-of-75 potential base stealers). Good speed, a terrific eye at the plate and a contact switch-hitter. Not known for his bat, the main knock on Luke was that he was too small to survive the rigors of catching at the MLB level. Marked at a generous 5’11” and 180 lbs, many scouts considered him too small to make it to the show, always playing the back-up to other more heralded catching prospects. A disappointing 2007, hitting .220 in the hitter friendly Pacific Coast League left him the lurch. However this season, some hot hitting, good timing and Michael Barrett’s sprained the ulnar collateral ligament – and suddenly he’s in the bigs catching Greg Maddux’s 350^th career win (he went 0 for 3 with three K’s, but collected his first major league hit the next day).

“I don’t know what to say. It’s kind of like all my dreams came true at once, I guess,” Carlin said. “It was a privilege, an honor. I’m pretty much speechless.”

Not bad for someone who’s been a marginal prospect at best, and lifetime back-up.

“It was one of the last things on my mind,” Carlin said. “Obviously, I’ve always wanted to get here. But I didn’t even think I was in the mix. I wanted to play well and go about my business the right way. It was surprising; I was shocked.”

And here’s Rotowire’s take:

Carlin has played in only two games thus far, but Josh Bard (wrist) is still not completely healthy. Carlin’s fantasy value isn’t very high at this point, but Josh Bard’s owners should be aware that Carlin will steal some of Bard’s playing time over the next week.

Update: Here’s a video.

By now Frank Thomas has had almost as many plate appearances for the Athletics (64) as he had for the Jays (72) before he was released on April 20th. Over that time he has hit: 269/.406/.365

Over the same stretch last year, Thomas hit an almost identical: .267/.356/.400

Meanwhile, only three Blue Jays have been hitting better than he has with the A’s:

Scott Rolen: .320/.386/.580
Greg Zaun: .319/.407/.426
Lyle Overbay: .298/.400/.421

Some combination of these players have seen more playing time in his absence and flopped mightily:

Shannon Stewart: .204/.259/.259
Rod Barajas: .194/.265/.226
Adam Lind: .053/.100/.053
Matt Stairs: .233/.281/.433
Mench 1-6, Diaz 0-4

Annnnd…the rest of the team has been slugging and getting on base just about as badly as he was before he was released:

Vernon Wells: .246/.296/.400
Alex Rios: .240/.266/.373
David Eckstein: .212/.255/.346
Aaron Hill: .211/.263/.310
John Mcdonald: .273/.273/.364

I know, I know…it was really about the 10 million next year. But this was sold as a baseball move. So far it’s not looking like there was anything seriously wrong with him, that maybe small sample sizes are really not such amazing predictive forces (*cough* Lind *cough*), that Frank’s disastrous starts aren’t completely a “myth”, and that there really was no better option anyway.

This concludes your downer post of the day!

After much speculation of a trade to boost the offense, J.P. brought in a duo that at first seems rather underwhelming: Brad Wilkerson and Kevin Mench. What’s funny is that before they became castoffs this year, are both guys who Ricciardi has had a very serious hard-on for years. Before he bloomed, rumours of Rios for either of these guys were circulating.

While not the seismic (read: Bonds) move a lot of Jays fans were hoping for, these are both bargains with some possible potential (and how many blockbusters really happen at this time of year?) The Jays have gone from crushing lefties to being dominated by them with the loss of lefty-killers Frank Thomas and Troy Glaus, and Mench has stunning recent results and career numbers of .305/.361/.561 against LHP. Mench and Stairs are a heck of a platoon.

Wilkerson on the other hand has been nothing more than average since he was 27 (he’s now 31), but he was free and says that his struggles this year were largely due to an spring training injury that he’s over now. (But then does anyone ever say: “boy I just suck now?”)

To me, this is an admittance that Shannon Stewart’s power is never going to return (*cough* told you so *cough*), because once everyone comes of the DL, one of them will have to go. Unless the team decides to go with 5 outfielders and hope that the rotation stays so strong that the bullpen doesn’t need all seven currently in it, which would mean that Syracuse is going to have at least a couple of major league pitchers on the staff once Wolfe comes back.

With Wells undergoing further tests today on his “jammed” wrist, we could be seeing a lot (and needing a lot) out of these two guys. Fortunately, we have a gold glove center fielder in Rios waiting to let his inner Gazelle out patrolling center field…

HalifaxJaysFan writes:

Hey Halejon, I was wondering if you looked at any pitch F/X data for Troy P from last night?

His splitter looked very flat, and his fastball very straight. He had good velocity but it seemed like movement on his pitches was all but non existant.

The only thing I would add is that his changeup was also flat.

This doesn’t seem to be a rare thing this season. Although he usually gets more tail sideways on his pitches, there isn’t the same sort of violent drop on his splitter that most pitchers (see: Papelbon from a couple of days ago) have.

Of course a changeup will go up and then come back down and end in the same spot (which is what “movement” and not “break” measures) because it’s slower, but it’s not going to dive out of the strike zone. Most of the hits from last night came on the fastball, though. And here’s where they came from:

High fastballs! Belt-high changeup and splitter! May as well have gone straight to the showers. I’m guessing that Percival has gotten by (and not allowed a run to this point!) on excellent command so far (because he’s not blowing a 92-93 mph fastball by anyone), and he had none of it last night.

Freed from having to explain why Baltimore is in first place for some unfathomable reason, the Toronto media has become downright giddy about the Jays after their recent run. First game with more than five runs (about league average) in three weeks? The bats are out of their funk! My man Cathal calls generously calls last night the “most complete victory of the season“, when the first 8 innings (until the Rays bullpen remembered for the first time this season it is the Rays’ freaking bullpen) were the same incredibly old story. Heck, Gibbons is even getting managerial prose written in his honour.

Still, the bats are still as flaccid as a bad dick joke- the only change has been heroic pitching and not losing every game by one run. The Jays scored 15 runs in the last five games of their 6-game losing streak, and then the exact same number over their recent 5 game winning streak. Overbay has started hitting the ball hard, but overall the team hasn’t even shown doubles power, which they ranked third in the majors last season and are now third last. I think a fairly decent number of people owe Mickey Brantley an apology for wildly overstating the damage his “swing for the fences and pull every pitch” mentality was supposedly having…

While we’re giving 90% of the credit for the performance of career performance to their current coaches, Brad Arnsberg is clearly a god because Marcum is pitching his face off. Not only is Marcum striking out a ton of batters, but the two-seamer he was working on in spring training is clearly working out for him. Last season, he was the only real flyball starter the Jays had, but he’s the other way around now (and last night induced a stunning 15 GB to 4 FB). Maybe he can have a talk with Burnett seeing that A.J. has ditched his sinking fastball for a mediocre cutter.

Unfortunately, the pitch f/x guys were sleeping last night (how often must I apply for that job?!), so this chart of Marcum is just a rerun of the beautiful rainbow of pitches that Marcum throws when he’s got his game.

People always get on the scouts and analysts (who were actually cautiously optimistic about what he did last season) for not being able to predict that anyone could ever make it without a 90 mph fastball. The truth is that while everyone loves the idea of the crafty righty getting by on guile and changing speeds, they are incredibly, incredibly, rare. Gibbons last night said: “A lot of guys have won in this game without overpowering stuff”. Ok, so name half a dozen in the majors right now who are above-average pitchers…occasionally strike out 9 in a game…ever, ever, have no and one-hit bids…are we down to one yet?

You heard it here first…A.J. has officially ditched his 2-seam fastball and now throws a cutter instead. Nobody knows why- he was a ground ball machine last year on the strength of his sinking fastball. If I can weasel it out of him tonight, the scoop will be over at Baseball Digest Daily…

The cutter wasn’t much of a factor tonight- he threw it 9 times for 4 strikes, 4 balls, and one single (far right at the belt in the image below) Tonight A.J’s problem was leaving his changeup and curve up in the zone, and grooving a 95 mph fastball about as down the middle as they come to Eric Hinske.

Catching up on some housekeeping here…During his last start on Saturday, Jesse Litsch surprised a few people (and possibly a few Chicago White Sox) by flashing up to 93 on the radar gun which he only did for one start last season (with lousy results).

He really can throw that hard, it’s just that he never, ever, throws his 4-seam fastball, relying instead on an endless stream of cutters. On Saturday, he threw about 9 pitches that averaged 92.2 mph (marked in red). There was also a difference between his slider/curve/cutter, instead of one bleeding into the next as earlier in the year when he was not as sharp. He also mixed an a sinking fastball and change.

I’ve opined before that Litsch should be in the minors right now, but it’s because of a lack of consistency, not potential. Litsch gets confused with a crafty soft-tosser just because the radar gun stays in the high 80’s, but he actually throws pretty hard and has a plus cutter. The only problem is that (as was the case last year), Litsch brings a totally different bag of tricks from one day to the next. His change, 4-seamer, even the ability to throw his breaking pitches come and go. When he has more than half of them working, he’s not as predictable and can put up starts like his last two.

As if to mock the ignorant masses clamouring for him to add another offspeed pitch to his arsenal (uhhh…don’t look at me, man. Chuck it. I have always said just chuck the ball. Yeah!). A.J. Burnett shut down the Red Sox last night with nothing but a four-seam fastball and the best curveball he has had all season (due to an almost-completely regrown nail). A.J. threw one changeup, a couple of 2-seamers, and yes, he tried out his infamous cut fastball again (the results: two balls and a swinging strike to Kevin Cash).

Who needs deception when you’re pumping 98mph gas? (For the first few innings at least). He even threw his curve for strikes occasionally.

Not to get too excited one win after what was a unbelievably disgustingly terrible road trip, but the last three days are why there’s still hope for the Jays’ doing great things this year if they can figure out how to hit their way out of a paper bag. Boston hasn’t been swinging the bats well lately, either, but those were three legitimate masterpieces from the Jays top three starters- a trio that should be the best in the league after some April jitters if they (read: A.J.) can stay healthy.

3 runs in three games! If I’d told you that’s what the Red Sox were going to be held to before the season started, how many games would you have guessed the Jays would come away with? Ok, how many games would you have NEVER IN A MILLION YEARS limp home with?

Joanna from Hum and Chuck recently opined:

Papelbon hasn’t looked that sharp. Yes, he is getting outs and that’s clearly what counts. But he is getting ridiculous strike calls (one on Rolen was clearly up and in) and isn’t quite as precise as I remember him.

And asked me to investigate…First the movement on his dirty, dirty, splitter. Yeah, it’s still pretty good…

Ugh….8+ inches of drop on a 90 mph pitch. I don’t even understand that. Now for his location:

Splitters diving out of the zone and a lot of fastballs middle/up. I’m not sure if the Jays saw his best control to the corners, but he does tend to pitch up in the zone. Here’s where his location was last season:

As for the umpire calls, he got a few gifts off the outside corners for sure. Rolen’s double came off a pitch that was up and out of the strike zone (probably supposed to be a lot higher- is one mistake an inning enough to get excited about when facing a guy hitters hit under the Mendoza line against?), and Matt Stairs’ single was off probably the best pitch to hit from either night. Unfortunately, some genius turned off the pitch f/x machine for Vernon’s shot that was stabbed by Pedroia…

Another day, another one-run loss…The way they’ve been “swinging” the bats so far this year I thought the Jays would get a hit or two and about 10 walks against Matsuzaka, but he didn’t walk (2) or strike out (3) that many batters, and instead just induced a ton of weak contact over 7 innings from the predictably punchless Jays offense by pounding the zone and getting groundballs low and away:

After the game, J.P. was talking to blissfully uninformed callers on Wilners show. The first time Bonds Bonds was mentioned, he sort of danced around the issue by saying he might not help anyway and implying that management might be holding him back. But then someone implied that he had to sign him in order to save his job, and he dropped his usual “I respect your frustration” veneer and spat some venom:

I will never do anything out of fear. I’m going to trade my integrity to bring people here that don’t stand for what we stand for. It’s almost laughable that the fans are willing to sell their soul. For a guy we don’t even know if he has anything left. We think he is because we haven’t seen him, but…I don’t know. I don’t even want to talk about it any more.

I find it odd that this is probably the first time I have ever heard the “selling your soul” argument against signing Bonds. It usually stops at whether he’s enough of an “distraction” (read: asshole) to counteract what is probably a still potent bat. And eventually the conclusion comes around to the bottom line that he would have to stalk and kill about one key bullpen member a month (in stat circles, this is known as his Reliever Runs Murdered per Nine Innings, or RRM/9) in order for signing him to be a bad baseball decision.

But is it really so ridiculous to choose character on your team for some other reason than the intangible effects it supposedly has on your ballclub? It may sound preachy by J.P. to bring it up, but I guarantee the casual fan is more likely to feel this way. I ambivalently sympathize- we constantly hear the old chestnut “baseball is a business”, but I like to feel good about the band of millionaires I have chosen to support. I like that there are other things about Roy Halladay I admire other than his cut fastball. I’m glad Scott Rolen is on the team even if Troy Glaus marginally outplays him this season because he’s @#$@#$ hilarious. No matter how much you like his OPS, there’s not one thing to like about Barry Bonds other than his OPS.

It’s not even that Bonds took steroids, it’s that I’ve watched him lie and snarl and be an unbelievably arrogant jerk over the issue (and in general) for years, and recently received a good deal of Schadenfreude over the fall and eventual indictment of such a terrible human being. There’s just no way I could turn that around and wholeheartedly cheer for him. I mean, if Roger Clemens announced tomorrow that he’d put his doping, lying, entrapping, statutory raping days behind him, found his Cy Young stuff, and was ready to come back to Toronto and lead the team into the playoffs, would you really want him on the team? Really? Are we that desperate?

Ok, in the middle of an unbelievable drought at the plate might not be the best time to pose this particular hypothetical, because there’s also something to be said for watching good baseball. But I’d rather watch these losers try to figure out how to hit than try to feel good about hoping Barry can silence the Fenway crowd that is quite rightly throwing syringes and waving asterisks at him- because naive or not, that used to be me…