Oh, Alfredo…if only you had pitched in the days before Hi-Def TV and Youtube. Check out the latest fan-spotted doctoring of the ball before MLB pulls the plug:

We are having some rather serious technical difficulties here. Does anyone have a computer science degree that is better than my computer science degree? Because the endless cycle of rebuild-million-pitch-database/watch computer explode in flames/get new computer is what has lead to my retirement, which will probably last just as long as Rampage Jackson’s.

In the meantime, listen to this amazing prediction by Mike Blowers. And he doesn’t even try to call every single @$#@!! pitch like Rance Mulliniks – or say absurdities on air like Wakefield’s knuckler must be off because it’s not up in the mid-70’s as usual.

ETA: Geez…poke my head up for one second and the request line starts ringing: the pitch that Ichiro was thrown out for arguing last Saturday was almost exactly a quarter of an inch off the plate, and pretty much right at the belt. That’s not a textbook strike, but right at the belt is more than often than not called one.

Just in case you needed confirmation on how dead centre those fastballs that Randy Ruiz hit 600 feet (Ok, the furthest was only 422 feet according to Hittracker, and his first a mere 322, a classic Yankees fly-ball-no-it’s-out to the opposite field. For Video, here’s the first and second) were, here’s a lazily stolen graphic from Fox:

He might not see one of those for a while.

So after days of speculation and presumably hours of intense negotiations over Alex Rios, the Jays have traded him for…err…squat. The Hardball Times crunches the numbers here, which point out in fancy ways that we’re trading him at his lowest value ever, he’s an underrated defender, and if you think the Jays are going to get some sort of magical, best-case scenario ever haul on the free agent market next year, you’re delusional:

In other words, Alex Rios is a bargain. The Blue Jays shouldn’t be looking to dump his salary on the waiver wire.

At least games will be easier to watch now that he’s not constantly pulling his brain-dead shenanigans or looking apathetic at the plate, but when a team starts giving away guys in their prime because they think 12 million dollars is an unreasonable amount to have an outfielder locked into for the next few years, they are not really trying to compete, let alone do so in the AL East.

This is also a fun time to pull out this J.P. quote from two State of The Franchises ago:

I think it’s our job to explore every possible option that’s out there…when you see the Santana’s of the world getting 150 million dollar and the Zitos’ of the world getting 120 million dollars, you realize the value of getting pitching and how tough it is. When we were presented with that, we thought long and hard. And obviously we value Rios more than we valued the other guy, and that’s why he’s still here.

When he famously and hilariously claimed that the Blue Jays were the ones to have pulled the plug on the Rios-Lincecum swap. Has anyone checked the waiver wire for Tim Lincecum lately? Maybe they can pick him up off the free agent wire for 12 million bucks. In 2047.

Asked on the Fan this afternoon what the general feeling in the clubhouse was about the team’s chances next year, Adam Lind tried to change the subject by saying nobody thought that far ahead, but “we just feel terrible for Roy”. I know he probably didn’t mean because it looks like Halladay is going to be here next season, but after last night’s typical let’s-make-Andy-Pettite-look-10-years-younger performance, I couldn’t agree more with that particular entendre.

So here’s the good news: Travis Snider’s back is feeling a lot better, thank you very much, as he won the PCL player of the week with a ridiculous 14-for-26 run, including 3 home runs and 7 doubles. So let’s drift off and think ahead to happier times, concentrating instead on obscure analysis of where batters tend to hit certain types of pitches so when Snider finally arrives in all his glory, we will actually be able to start cheering his lastest game-winning bomb as the catcher is still putting down the signs…

Over at Baseball Prospectus Rob McQuown has deemed the Jays/Reds deal the worst deadline deal this season (hat tip: BDD) in favour of the Jays, giving it an “outside chance that this will be looked upon as a disaster of Liriano/Nathan proportions”. Probably nothing you didn’t already know, but worth a look if you’re into real stats like EqA and PECOTA…

Update: Rolen just got hit in the head in the worst way by Jason Marquis and left the game. I’m not sure I’ve ever seen a pitcher so furious with himself for beaning an opposing player. What a completely unprofessional display of humanity!

It now seems relatively official that the Jays are getting back Edwin Encarnacion, Josh Roenicke, and Zach Stewart for Scott Rolen. There’s going to be a lot of crying that this is a sign the Jays are not going to attempt to compete next year, but come on – when you get three young, cheap, almost major league ready players with upside for a guy who at the end of last season wasn’t sure he was ever going to play again, how can that be a bad thing? It has been an absolute once-in-a-lifetime treat to watch Rolen at third base, but if you take off your Blue-Jay tinted glasses for a second, he’s a walking time bomb that is at his highest value in years right now.

If you still need some confirmation that 2010 isn’t a totally lost cause, just listen to J.P:

But if we keep Doc now I think that means we are trying to put together the best team possible for 2010.

Notice I didn’t say believe him, but doesn’t that sound nice? Anyway, here’s the skinny on who the Jays are getting back.

1) Edwin Encarnacion

The Good: He’s 26, with a career OPS of .793. Hit 26 home runs last year. Will cost less than half (4.75 -> 11 mil) of Rolen’s Salary next year. Makes announcers go nuts with clutch bombs.

(Ok, I was trying to find the time that he made Jeff Brantley look like a tool by hitting a walk off home run at the precise moment Brantley was going on about how he was not a clutch hitter — but that is almost as entertaining a broadcast of it instead of what has long ago been removed from Youtube by the MLB facist regime).

The Bad: He’s having a terrible season, batting .209 apparently because he can’t hit an inside pitch to save his life (or at least before he landed on the DL in April – he has hit an excellent 276/375/526 since his return at the start of this month). Sounds like bat speed to me – he’ll fit in nicely with Vernon. Defensively, he’s at -10 in =/- right now, bad enough for 30th in the league. And that’s where he’s been every year, so the Jays just went from one of the best defensive 3B of all time to possibly the worst in the majors. Work your magic, Butterfield!

2) Josh Roenicke

The good: Dude throws gas. He has a fastball that averages 96 with movement, and a Litschian cutter that comes in at 86 with so much break it’s almost a slider. The occasional curveball. He’s 26, and pitching effectively in the majors. Got off to a late start in his career because he started as a hitter.

The bad: He only really has two pitches and is therefore just a reliever, although the Jays amazingly now seem to be in need of them. For a full scouting report including a generally rosy report on his mechanics with one minor qualm, check out the one at Redlegs Baseball.

3) Zack Stewart

The good: Big, athletic former quarterback . Throws a hard sinker around 93 mph, an average slider, and a developing change. Here’s his official draft report, or from more recently, a video of him facing the Reds in April of this year – not great quality, but you can really see the dirty movement on his fastball a few times:

Keeps the ball in the park (2 home runs in ~90 innings this year) He has roared through the Reds’ system this season, posting an ERA around two in A and AA before ending up AAA at the age of 22. Good mechanics, doesn’t fly open. Originally slated to be the Reds’ future closer, he was starting this season until he got to AAA (likely to try and build up his innings slowly) and the Reds were apparently toying with moving him back to the rotation next year, where he pitched some in college as well.

The bad: Doesn’t strike a lot of guys out. Has had command issues (John Sickels gave him a B-/C+ because of them before this season), although they seem to be in the past. According to the Hardball Times: “[His slider] can lose some of its tightness at times and turn into a slurvy-type pitch”. There is a frame by frame-by-frame breakdown of his two main pitches halfway down this page that is really worth a look and I would totally rip off if I didn’t write there.

Spreading the word…apparently it is for Edwin Encarnacion and potentially Yonder Alonso, which would be a rather ridiculous coup by JP. I’ll keep babbling here about why if that is indeed the case, but you should probably just go to mlbtraderumours for updates.

Update: Maybe not…Ed Price says Rolen+Alonso is inaccurate. Which Twit do you believe?

Update: This is stupid. Every sports commentator is spewing out contradictory information within seconds of each other. Time for a nap, wake me up when it’s over.

With brilliant SABR minds like Bill James in your front office, a wunkerkind of a GM, a few quality characters like our own Kevin Millar keeping things loose, and the willingness to spend what it takes for the last few pieces of the puzzl needed to go all the way.

Oh yeah, and drugs. Tons of them. According to the New York Times (hat tip: Baseball Digest Daily), both David Ortiz and Manny Ramirez are on this list that I absolutely can’t wait to see of players that tested positive for steroids back in 2003.

As for Ortiz, I’m just stunned that his overnight transformation from injury-prone Twins castoff to Best Clutch Hitter of All Time was in any way artificially induced, especially with the way his physique and numbers have stayed so consistent since MLB really started cracking down on steroids…

Hello, all…this Bird isn’t dead, I’ve just been laboriously assembling million-pitch databases lately, only to see one computer after the other that I put them on promptly explode (no doubt overburdened by the sheer volume of baseball knowledge contained within).

I did manage to squeeze out my first foray into hit f/x at The Hardball Times, though – so you should go read it and let me know if you think there’s anything interesting that could be done on the Jays with just the month of data for the Jays that is available (I’m already trying to figure out Vernon).

But for now, here’s the 0-2 pitch that Ichiro just plunked into center field for his first (MLB) walk-off hit ever:

The yellow box is Ichiro’s specific strike zone as measured by the pitch f/x operators (not a league average like I usually use). Downs’ final pitch was almost exactly six inches outside (it looks like less on TV due to the angle) and six inches below his knees. Now I know you know how not even remotely a strike that is, but for some fun try standing in front of an imaginary plate and swinging at something 6 inches on the other side of it. From my normal stance, I can’t even reach that far with a bat – and I’m not halfway to first base when I start my swing. Absurd! Inhuman! Not fair! Completely impossible to fault Downs on this one – despite it being an 0-2 count, that curve could hardly have been more of a “waste” pitch if it was rolled into the dugout.