Archive for the ‘Blue Jays’ Category
Bolting the Barn Door on Burnett

So the lip service from both the Blue Jays and A.J. Burnett is finally over and the Jays’ biggest free agent splash of the last decade has duly shuffled over to the Evil Empire just over halfway through his contract, for a boatload more money and time than the Jays were ever seriously considering. Well those grapes were sour anyway! Here is a rundown of the top 5 most statistically similar pitchers to Burnett according to Baseball-Reference through this point in his career, and where their careers went for the next five years from the age of 32 on.
Please note: this is purely meant for Toronto fans suffering through a cold, barren offseason and is in no way an attempt to be particularly scientific or predictive.
1. Pete Harnish
Coming off a career year, Pete put in another quality season at 32, logging 198 innings with an ERA of 3.68. His strikeout rate dropped, bu he won a career-high 16 games. Then his career totally went to hell – he only pitched another 166 innings over two seasons and logged a 5.09 ERA. Pete would tell you it was because he quit chewing tobacco and became clinically depressed, but we know better. He hit his expiry date.
2. Stan Williams
Stan was sent to the bullpen after a lousy April at the age of 32. He bounced back and forth and wound up salvaging a 3.94 ERA on the year, but would only start only one more game in his career after that. He had one year as a lights-out reliever (1.99 ERA), but was again mediocre at 34 and retired 3 games into the next season.
3, Juan Guzman
As I am sure you all remember, Juan’s career was already pretty seriously in the tank at this point. Except for a bizarre AL-leading ERA of 2.93 at 29, he hadn’t done anything since winning two world series in his first three years with the Jays so they dumped him to Baltimore. He managed to pull it together for one full season of 200 innings with a 3.74 ERA and then his career was toast (he was picked up the next season by the Rays, gave up 8 runs in his first 1 2/3 innings, and never pitched again).
4. Erik Hanson
Another familiar face! His velocity was already shot in his first year with the Jays (at 31), which sent his ERA up by about a run. By 32 his ligaments were well and truly spaghettified. After averaging 190.4 innings over the previous 7 seasons, he threw just 15 innings at the age of thirty-two, 49 the next season, and then done.
5. Kirk McCaskill
Similar to Stan Williams, McCaskill went from a really good starter at 31 to bullpen fodder at 32 after a lousy start to the season. And it prolonged his career a few more years as well – but he didn’t get that one more good year to show for it, posting a 5.05 ERA over three seasons in middle relief until retiring at age 35.
The next 5 aren’t much better than that horror show, but you get the idea. Except for a few high-profile automatons pitching into their 40′s lately, power pitchers in their 30′s aren’t really such a great investment. Of course this isn’t such an issue for the Yankees, who just want the cream of the free agent crop right now and can afford to swallow some major busts down the road. But I don’t need some stat dork to tell me that paying A.J. Burnett 16.5 million dollars to pitch when he’s 36 is going to be a farce.
And I’m actually kind of glad Nuke stuck around in the AL East, too – the Yanks would have gotten someone comparable like Derek Lowe anyway, and now we get front-row seats once A.J’s heater starts to lose a few mph and he trots out the old chestnut about how he’s going to start “pitching” instead of “throwing”, promises to bring his changeup out once in a blue moon, and maybe even mixes in his legendary cut fastball as the Bronx Zoo goes positively mental on him.
Good News/Bad News
Ok, first the good news. Which is obviously not coming from the JAys’ big-league team…In a post over at ESPN insider, Jason Grey gushes about Travis Snider and points out why him hitting .263 cannot in any way be considered “dissapointing” when he’s the third-youngest player in the league and showing “light-tower” power. It’s a long, interesting article and includes a couple of quotes from the man himself on everyone’s favorite (*cough* overrated *cough*) ability- going the other way:
“Last year, I saw that my highest percentage of base hits are going the other way,” Snider said, “because pitchers aren’t going to bust you in on your hands very often because that’s the pitch you turn on and make a name for yourself. I looked at my spray chart and saw a lot of my success came on the left-center gap and down the left-field line, which is something I’ve always been able to do.”
“I got the best piece of advice I ever got hittingwise from Matt Williams [his AFL coach]. He said ‘for RBI guys, your approach has got to be up the middle. It’s the biggest part of the field and the most room to be able to put the ball in play without someone catching it. If you can stay up the middle, especially with guys on base, it gives your team a chance to score runs.’ To me, that made a lot of sense. I’d heard it a hundred different ways, but the way he put it clicked for me, and that’s what I try to do. I try not to get too caught up in pulling the ball 500 feet when you can go 380-400 in the left-center gap for a double or a homer.”
This year, Snider has gotten away from doing that a bit too much, rolling over a lot of balls to the right side of the infield, perhaps pressing a bit as he hasn’t been mashing as much as he did in the low minors.
“Sometimes you get into an approach where you start to try and pull pitches too much and you start to hook and pull,” Snider said, “so a big part of my development has been working to stay up the middle with pitches and allow my natural swing to work and my hands to react.”
Grey also confirms that although he was healthy enough to play, Snider’s elbow was causing him mechanical problems earlier this season that lead to his slow start.
Speaking of mechanics, here’s the bad news, that I’m sure you’ve already heard but not lathered up with enough doom and gloom.
“It’s not strength — it’s not flexibility,” Rolen said. “The problem is the mechanical functioning of my shoulder. It’s not functioning properly — the way a normal shoulder is supposed to function.”
Ok, so third baseman for the next three years is going on a rehab program even though the problem isn’t strength or flexibility. Lovely. “The trend has been too familiar the last few years” sent some chills down my spine as well.
Before the season, Rolen said that the real test would be if he could get separation of his hands from his body during his swing. Last year he couldn’t get his hands back and out, which threw off his mechanics and sapped power. Well, he’s had an almost identical year at the plate so it’s safe to say that it wasn’t the scar tissue that they cleaned out that had been causing that – his shoulder is just fucked permanently.
I was all for this trade because the Toronto medical staff was absolutely glowing about his physical condition, to the point where it seemed like they thought they knew something that the Cards didn’t about the shape of his shoulder. It tells you something about even the best sports doctors to evaluate something tricky like the range of movement required to not just function, but do so at an elite level.
Meanwhile, Troy Glaus has played every game but two this season and is mashing the ball after getting off to a slow start. Maybe he was right and the turf would have exacerbated his Plantar Faciitis, but right now it looks like the Jays have been left given a good old fashioned hosing in this round of “trade the cripple”…
The Jays just got more……Squirrely??
Did you know, when you type “squirrely” into Google, this is the third thing that comes up. I really thought a picture of Reed Johnson would be first, but I digress.
Everyone’s favorite Ken is reporting this morning that the Jays have reached a preliminary agreement with David Eckstein on a 1-year, $4.5 million contract.
Now I’m not going throw up links to all the Jays fans who have been bemoaning this signing for the past 48 hrs or so. Yes he’s old. Yes he’s injury prone. Yes his defense not as good as the Prime Minister of Defense. And he didn’t get signed today to a $275 million contract.
But he does get on base at a decent clip:
Jays’ Leadoff Hitters last Season: .247/.321/.407
David Eckstein last Season: .309/.356/.382
For 1 year and a minor commitment of cash, I’ll take it. Someone grab a discount card at the cleaners, we now have the dirtiest team in the league.
Standing Pat
I don’t know what all the fuss is about having a GM that lies through his teeth. Personally, I find it makes the offseason much more exciting. One day there’s nothing on the radar with B.J. Ryan, and the next we’ve signed him to the biggest deal for a reliever in history. The next year the club is focusing on pitching and then out of the blue signs a Hall of Fame DH to a three-year deal. It keeps you on your toes.
This offseason, J.P. is making it sound really boring. Apparently, someone would have to sneak a star player onto the roster while he wasn’t looking, or a free agent would have offer to pay the team to let him play. The soaring Canadian dollar? He nipped that one in the bud, too.
“The loonie is soaring right now, but Ricciardi said that has no bearing on the team payroll he’s been given to work with. The Jays have roughly $90 million to use on next year’s roster — a similar payroll to last season. Toronto’s GM said the exchange rate hasn’t influenced how much money the team can spend this winter.”
I’m sure glad that J.P. “likes” his team. I do too. But are we seriously to believe that he doesn’t see some pretty easy ways it could be made better, a need to do so in order to compete in the AL East, and the possibility that our young pitching could really go somewhere next season? All this denial me think that he’s really cooking-a-something up, lowering expectations so he can go for the maximum shock value and bring the crowd to its feet if he manages to make something happen. Unfortunately, Paul Godfrey isn’t on board:
“A lot would depend on the circumstance,” Godfrey said. “Ted Rogers has been a reasonable owner. If a legitimate question presented itself, I’m sure I could present a case.”
Hmm, that really sounds a lot more optimistic. In fact that sounds like there really is some payroll flexibility this year, if not money that has to be spent. And Posada really didn’t get the memo:
“The Mets are interested; they’ve contacted us,” Posada said. “The Mets, the Marlins, Toronto, all of them are interested.”
What?! I know that free agents tend to refer to teams as “interested” if they’ve so much as made eye contact across a crowded lobby so this shouldn’t be taken seriously. But if the Jays have so much as called his agent this year for a good laugh, it makes all this “standing pat” talk utter nonsense.
There’s no way the Jays get Posada. It would be a giant mistake. After having a career-year when most catchers are falling off a cliff, he’s probably going to get four years for an amount (13+) you should never pay a catcher when he’s 39, and the Yankees would outbid us no matter what we offered anyway. But it shows that while Ricciardi may think it’s unlikely anything significant is going to happen this offseason, he isn’t resigned to it- and more importantly, Rogers hasn’t completely tied his hands. That’s enough to keep the hot stove burning over a long Canadian winter.
The Call
After a couple of questionable calls by the walking nightmare that is Kerwin Danley didn’t amount to anything, last night Coco Crisp legged out what looked like a sure double play to end the inning. The Doc cursed at the ump a few times, and then admittedly had a meltdown, giving up a home run on the next pitch followed (after some more cursing at Ellsberg for being a twit as he rounded the bases) by two straight doubles that iced the game.
So was it a bad call? The next inning they showed the only camera angle that you can tell anything from, and here are the important frames:
1) Just before
You can see the ball just about where Crisp’s foot is, as a streak downwards.
2) Impact
This is the shot that the broadcast stopped on, and it looks like he’s out. The ball is nowhere to be seen and it looks like Coco’s heel is down but he might not be quite on the bag. However, the ball isn’t in Overbay’s glove yet, it’s hidden in front of the corner of the bag as a white streak- you can sort of see the start of it over Crisp’s shoe. Because in the next shot…
3) After
The ball is clearly inside Overbay’s glove, but Crisp’s knee is already buckling and he’s clearly touched the bag.
Sorry for the lack of high-def, you may now proceed to stop your eyes from bleeding…anyway, it could have gone either way but this looks like a great split-second call to me. I’ll be back for the next 40 or so weeks with every other @#$@#$ call at first base that HAS been blown for the Jays this season.
Where to begin?
(Editor’s note: Dan was writing essays in the comments, so I decided to make him start writing posts that I can heckle mercilessly instead. How about a warm round of applause from everyone here searching for the Cut Shuuto?)
Is it just me, or is there way too much gone crazy in the world of baseball to even begin my bellyaching about the state of the Jays’ offence and the tribulations of Mr. Vernon ‘Infield Fly’ Wells right now (even despite a much more ‘Big Hurt-Like’ .1002 OPS from Frank Thomas in August so far). Isn’t this the time of year that Jays’ fans should be pulling out their hair, watching their team live or die by down the stretch for even a sniff at that precious of precious wildcard spot?
But no, we all know it, but are afraid to blurt it out in the company of others, just in case there’s still some pour sucker out there that still believes in Santa or the Easter Bunny.
I think Teddy KGB said it best in the movie Rounders:
“It hurts, doesn’t it? You can’t believe what fell… All your dreams dashed. Hopes down the fucking drain. Your fate, standin’ right behind me.”
And that fate? Well, waiting until spring training again next year when we get to start the whole torturous circle of baseball all over again. Man, I wish they were even just 5 games back in the race and even had the faintest hope – The last time I had that feeling was in 2000 (I may live vicariously through Baseball Race.com), when we were leading the pack at the All-Star break only to have those dreams so quickly quashed. Now that’s sad.
So what to do until then? You pray for all the youngsters in the rotation to turn into stud pitchers – and just start taking the game at face level (and what a terrible face that is):

First, Aaron Hill – stay away from Mel “hells angel handshake/knocked up my chashier/pot of water” Lastman.
I don’t care what’s he’s paying you, after what he did to this city, nobody should still be giving that fuckup the time of day. Toronto Sun, that includes you, you worthless piece of trash.
Second, does anyone else think the three inning save is the most ridiculous thing ever??
Congratulations, Wes Littleton for preserving a 20-run lead, getting the save and ruining saves for all future generations.
Third, did anyone else notice where Troy Glaus is playing when Reggie “I wish I was Joey Gathright” Willits was hitting the other night. Does 10 bunt singles suddenly mean its time to start playing “rover” beside the pitcher? It all doesn’t bode well for the state of his feet if he can’t charge balls anymore. What’s with all these one-dimensional players fucking with us these days. Aaron Hill you know what I’m talking about.
Finally, I did have one moment of solace this past week when I realized that our bullpen is going to be just fine until the Beej comes back. And then its going to be absolutely fucking amazing. Without Ryan (and there’s a pretty healthy chance that he won’t ever pitch again, lets not forget that) and even with Frasor and Towers still pitching every 2 weeks in blow-outs, they still have a pretty lethal relief corps out there. And a good reason why we’ve still been winning the occasional game despite not scoring any runs for the past month.
Though it did bring up a troubling conversation I had with my Dad the other evening. He said that many young pitchers have started voluntarily opening up their arms for Tommy John – a whole bunch in my brother’s league (Frontier League, A+ Independent League Baseball) – for that faint hope that it might make their arms stronger and get them back/to the Pros.
Not only is there no evidence that this is true, but I think raises several other more troubling thoughts:
“a symptom of how dysfunctional the American relationship to sport is becoming”.
Wait a minute, did I actually just blog that? I thought I was only thinking it to myself….
Break it down
Sorry, Tao of Stieb- your Youtube boyz have nothing compared to my man Jonny here:
Punchy and topical…Vote Gibby for GM of the year!
Prove me wrong, kid. Prove me wrong…
A whole two weeks of decent hitting after I wrote this article saying that Russ Adams’ season had completely gone off the rails and his career with the Blue Jays was pretty much over, he’s back with the Blue Jays. And this isn’t even the Toronto Star messing around this time, it’s official.
In retrospect, sending Hector Luna straight to the majors when the team we got him from didn’t like him in AAA was a little silly. He looked lost at the plate and not much better in the field.
Adams had a few games at third before his promotion, so he will probably be used as an utility infielder, especially with Troy Glaus probably needing days off from now until the end of the year. His throws across the diamond could be a bit of a circus, but at least we have another lefty bat on the bench.
Nothing Sacred
Why was I not informed? This is probably the worst thing I have ever seen on a baseball field:
Just in case naming your stadium after one of the biggest economic frauds ever, then changing it to a product with the word “maid” in it wasn’t embarrassing enough. Just in case having a 300 foot left field fence and a home run porch sticking out of it hadn’t shown enough disdain for the subtlety of baseball. Just in case you didn’t think that making your novelty home-run train carry oranges instead of coal wasn’t quite enough of a sell-out, there are now cartoon cows on the freaking foul pole telling you to EAT MORE FOWL.
I know there are plenty of advertisements at the Rogers center, even on the outfield walls. But this is messing with one of the classic lines of the ballpark. What’s next? You could probably fit some double arches around the batters box. Maybe a logo or a swoosh or two along the foul lines? Bases are just crying out to be painted like credit cards, and the back of the mound is an empty canvas that is shown for most of every TV broadcast…
I will stop now because they’re probably listening. But I hereby vow that if this sort of thing ever comes to Toronto, I will not let mere incarceration thwart my vigilante attempts to remove them by whatever means necessary.
I Mock Thee!!
This time it’s mlb.com itself having a little trouble with their fact checking:
Road worriers: The Blue Jays have compiled an impressive 35-22 at Rogers Centre, but have stumbled to a 23-35 mark on the road. That is largest discrepancy of home and road records in Major League Baseball.
It’s not even close: the Milwaukee Brewers are the biggest homers in the league (for a complete rundown, see my in-depth and evidently boring-as-heck article on this topic. If you’re not quite ready for naptime, battersbox has a fantastic historical analysis, and with pictures, too!)
| Team | Home Record | Away Record |
|---|---|---|
| Toronto Blue Jays | 35-22 | 24-35 |
| Milwaukee Brewers | 39-20 | 23-36 |
Not only do they have a significantly better record than the Jays at home, but their record is even worse on the road. The Blue Jays are just at the high end of the spectrum….Milwaukee is on pace for a second straight year of the highest home field advantage not at mile-high stadium in the last half decade. I have no idea why- it’s a pretty normal, predictable park with a lot of room in foul territory. And just like the Jays, they hit a little better, but more importantly their pitching is vastly better, with more than 1 run a game less allowed at home.
Quote of the Day
Dan: “Where the heck did we get Luna?!”
Me: “Well he had a great season for the Cardinals last year and only wasn’t starting because he’s so useful for his versatility but then he came to spring training fat and made a lot of errors and they gave up on him.”
Dan: “Hey, that sounds like something the Blue Jays would do!”
I really like that they Claimed Luna off waivers. Yes it’s a longshot on an erratic, mentally unstable player, but instead of a major leaguer who nobody wants, think of him as a new, only slightly old, minor league prospect who is better than anyone else we have coming up. He’s the super-versatile player we wanted Jason Smith to be, but he’s as young as Russ Adams. He’s quick, walks, has a little power. And although he’s been frustrating for some teams, it’s not like he’s burnt out. He hasn’t even played a full season in AAA yet, and he was rushed to the big leagues- the fact that his major league totals are better than his minor league ones tells you something.
And back to the quote…doesn’t it seem like the Jays are a little rough on the young guys? Rios was almost out the door for some pretty mediocre talent when his power wasn’t even developing that slowly. (Compare Magglio Ordonez to Rios and you can see that Alexis was not the first “late” (wait…he was 25?!) bloomer).
I guess Russ Adams and Josh Phelps were legitimate scrap-heapers, but the way they just sat Adams on the bench for a season was bizarre. Then there’s the cycle of 1-outing appearances they gave Jamie Vermilyea and Gronk and Brian Wolfe this season until they accidentally Wolfe up long enough to figure out how to pitch. And finally…remember when we told Marcum that due to his strong finish to 2006 he had a shot at the starting rotation, and then we went out and signed a bunch of extreme longshots so he didn’t really? Can we at least fire a scout somewhere for that decision??
What Happened??
Two years ago, Russ Adams was ending what looked like the first of many seasons as our starting SS and leadoff man. It wasn’t a great season, but our team wasn’t so hot that year either. And compared to the black hole that we’ve had there for years, a guy who could hit .260 with a little pop, a lot of walks and a few stolen bases was positively intoxicating.
His defence was lacking, but the team was so sure he would continue to improve that they took the other SS we drafted in the first round and stashed him at second, even though Aaron Hill has a much better arm. Now that’s confidence!
Then he pulled a Knoblauch on us.
And couldn’t even hit any more.
Three months into last season the Jays had seen enough and he lost not only his spot with the club, but his position. This was no short term demotion to iron out some kinks, or to “find himself”. He was knocking the cover off the ball in AAA, but they didn’t even treat him like a prospect any more, and just kept him on the bench for most of the season gathering rust.
Then they signed Ray Olmedo, John McDonald, Jason Smith and Royce Clayton to make sure they had shored up the middle infield with mediocre players just to remove any chance that he could get another shot due to injuries. There were a few positive articles on him and Jerry Howarth shot his mouth off about him coming back in 2008, but all that J.P. would concede was that he could earn his way back to the club (i.e. BE BETTER).
At the all-star break this year, reported when Hill was(n’t really) injured that Russ would be recalled, but now that Royce has been given the axe, it’s Olmedo who is going to fill in around the infield and maybe play some SS as well.
Anyway, now that I’ve got you all hyped about the walking epic tragedy that is the career of Mr. Adams, go on over to Flying Through the Farm/The Jays Nest and read an absolutely superb, in depth analysis of his stats in AAA this year. God, they do good work over there.














