Comments on: Blue Jays Blockbuster — Following the Money

By: halejon

halejon — Sat, 17 Nov 2012 01:47:58 +0000

I don’t really know what to make of Fangraph values. I get the concept, but I feel there’s something lost in the positional adjustment and what you realistically pay players along the slope of value instead of the way they dice up WAR and turn it into dollars. I mean, apparently Yunel Escobar was worth 19.1 million in 2011 when he hit .290 with 11 bombs…I guess in that market Jimmy Rollins was worth 22.2 mil last year (which on second glance is a lot better than I knew existed when I made that comment).

I actually started going through b/r’s top 10 most similar players for a post like that, but it was really unsatisfying. Alan Trammell, Ryne Sandberg, and then a bunch of guys from the 1900′s…

By: halejon

halejon — Fri, 16 Nov 2012 20:50:56 +0000

Yeah, but it just makes to sense to plug gaping holes if you’re acquiring superstars. Especially with douchebags who buy entire drug companies to try and lie their way out of being caught and alienate their team so much in the process that they don’t even want them to play in the postseason! Hahahahahahaha….

By: KingKat

KingKat — Fri, 16 Nov 2012 20:50:04 +0000

If Reyes goes the path of Jimmy Rollins, do the Jays really lose the trade? According to Fangraphs at least, Rollins has continued to provide good value in his 30′s. http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=971&position=SS

I might just ask you to show us that binder (follow-up post please?).

By: halejon

halejon — Fri, 16 Nov 2012 19:54:07 +0000

Right. Duh. I guess I can’t even feel the excitement of the payroll bump because Rogers has been promising it in no uncertain terms for some years now. In fact, they kind of promised it was going to happen last year and then mumbled when the time came. So it’s sorta like a deadbeat dad finally showing up for Christmas, with a bunch of flashy video games for the kids instead of the cheque that I had already mentally spent on things the family actually needs. It’s a bittersweet time, full of uncomfortable metaphors.

By: halejon

halejon — Fri, 16 Nov 2012 19:46:02 +0000

I’m not sure how you come to that unless you’re granting Bonifacio his small-sample-out-of-line-with-career 2012 numbers against RHP in a platoon situation. I feel like a LF bat is one of the easy places to get bang for buck, too. Having a 20-million-dollar SS and a league-marginal platoon in a power position to save a few bucks doesn’t make team-building sense to me.

I think it was three years ago the first team ever made it through a season with 5 starters? Yeah, the depth is almost just as important when you are absolutely guaranteed to have to use it. Not sure why people mentally check out after 5 starters every year and then get mad at the world when we’re giving away games in July by the second inning throwing some AA kid out there because OMG SOMEONE’S ARM FELL OFF WHO COULD EVER HAVE FORSEEN THIS WHY ARE WE ALWAYS SO UNLUCKY…;)

By: halejon

halejon — Fri, 16 Nov 2012 19:32:15 +0000

“For the Jays, it’s better to make this deal than to sit on their hands and hope that they’ll do better later.”

That’s your opinion that I disagree with. Rushing in is not always the best policy, and ‘getting what you desperately need’ does not make automatically make trade a good one if you could have gotten it for less. I’m sure you’ve heard the canard that sometimes the best moves are the ones you don’t make. While I am aware of the Jays need to WIN NOW, after surveying the market from last year and where it seems to be going this year, I think that it would be pretty easy to do better in exchange the same cash/prospects.

I’m not trying to say that Alvarez and Buehrle are the same pitcher, just that it clearly isn’t the sort of upgrade that fans should be happy about spending 16 million bucks a season on. Half a point of ERA, and one pitcher is highly likely to improve over the next few years, while the other is almost certain to decline. To me that’s almost a wash, getting ever so slightly better and more reliable in exchange for 10 years older. 187 innings from a 22-year-old is pretty valuable, too!

“This trade isn’t about deciding which team won and which team lost.”

Really? Can’t we try to evaluate if it was a good idea, just for fun? I am rather disappointed to hear that trades are no longer meant for thinking about and discussing.

By: halejon

halejon — Fri, 16 Nov 2012 19:16:03 +0000

Thanks! I had not encountered fellow contrarians to this point. It’s frustrating when you’re just trying to make logical sense of what’s going on and get shouted down by the fanboys as if you don’t want see a better product on the field, ain’t it?

It will be interesting to see how the market plays out, and what other deals the Jays end up making. I just can’t imagine Sanchez/Marcum going for any more than what we paid Buehrle/Johnson, and like the combo just as much.

Seriously…if I hear “we proved that the lineup wasn’t the problem last year” one more time, I’m going to puke. There are some gaping holes on this team that it wouldn’t take 50 million bucks to patch. There’s just no way that after all this we end up the season with Davis and Lind as starters. Even JPA’s days are probably numbered seeing that we keep making sure we have an extra shitty catcher around.

By: jb21

jb21 — Fri, 16 Nov 2012 19:07:31 +0000

I meant top 3rd as in Top 10 in the MLB vs. bottom 3rd aka 20-30. All in all I understand the risks, but I think it was a move that had to be made, and HOPEFULLY there’s a couple more bucks to be spent to REALLY go after 2013. The AL East is there for the taking, probably more than in the past 10+ years.

By: halejon

halejon — Fri, 16 Nov 2012 18:58:13 +0000

I hear yah. I think if you read between the lines, I’m trying to acknowledge this fact the entire way. I can’t tell you what Reyes’ would cost if we were trying to sign him now, but I can cast doubt on the idea that he has gone up in value at all since the Marlins bought him. I can’t tell you what we could sign Sanchez for this offseason, but I can tell you that he’s only asking for a mil more per season. There is value in avoiding the bidding system and the uncertainty itself — but when the numbers are otherwise close, to me that is dwarfed by the prospects and backloading.

I don’t want something for nothing, guarantees, etc, etc. Just market value or better. That’s AA’s job. He’s usually very good at it. Anyone can bring some real proven commodities to town with 50 million bucks. All prospects are unproven.

About young pitching, I would say instead that he gave up the commodity with the highest value on the trade market right now. It is only ‘overvalued’ in the sense that teams are willing to pay a ton because it is typically so hard to acquire (unless you mean because teams tend to overrate young flamethrowers and/or their potential for injury).

By: halejon

halejon — Fri, 16 Nov 2012 18:32:30 +0000

So true…especially with the possibility that no free agent wants to Canada/a non-competitive team, it’s impossible to know what’s really available to AA. But that’s why I’m strictly trying to compare to market value (and what was considered extremely generous market value last year). I find it hard to believe that the Jays would have to overpay THAT much more than the Marlins did a year later for similar talent, or much more for a top flight pitcher than what their agent is floating around the league. If Greinke signs for 30 million a season for eight years, forget everything (it’s happened before — Burnett looked like a stupid deal, and he ended up opting out looking for more money because the market went stupider).

I don’t agree about the dancing in the street because of a 3rd payroll (in the AL East, I assume you mean). You have to be smarter than the Yankees, and you have to have somewhere close to the same payroll that the Yankees have in order to compete with the Yankees. Rogers finally gave AA the latter, and it is NOT time to stop caring about the former — rather the opposite.

Why does Hech mean nothing to us? He was supposed to be the 2b of the future. I’m also glad that we didn’t lose anyone blue-chip, but that doesn’t mean that these assets were worthless. I’m also glad we didn’t pay 20 mil for Nick Swisher, but that’s like saying I’m glad we didn’t DFA Bautista. That it could have been worse doesn’t mean this was particularly good.