The Mockingbird

Brad Lincoln Report and Hand Wringing

with 10 comments

So much for bragging about AA’s trading proficiency. Unless there’s more to this trade than initially reported, Travis Snider for Brad Lincoln straight up really hurts. Lincoln is a guy who has been languishing as a AAAA prospect until this year — after some good work as a long man for the Pirates, they decided to try him out as a starter, but it didn’t work. I was watching one of his starts and he looked great the first time through the lineup but then got shelled later in the appearance. It’s probably because he doesn’t have a third pitch:

Brad Lincoln 2012 Pitch Breakdown
Pitch Type Four-Seam Fastball (93 mph)  Curve Curve Changeup
Frequency 59.4 31.1 4.9 3.7

Lincoln’s fastball has averaged 93 this year, but it’s a combination of just under 94 during his time in the pen and just over 92 during his starts. Overall, his fastball is a tick above average while his Curve is better:

Brad Lincoln Vs League
Fastball Strike % Fastball Miss % Curve Strike % Curve Strike %
Brad Lincoln 47% 28% 45% 40%
League Average 45% 27% 40% 35%

Still…27-year old middle relievers who have only looked good for their last 40 innings in the ‘pen are easy to replace and not worth much. 24-year-olds with Snider’s pop and potential simply do not exist (although the Jays clearly haven’t thought so for some time). This also seems to signal that the Jays envision either Rasmus or Gose as a corner outfielder in the long-term, which is just as troubling.

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Written by halejon

July 31, 2012 at 1:26 am

10 Responses

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  1. [...] the flip side, Jon Hale of the Mockingbird encapsulates all the kind of fears that– even though I’m OK with it– I [...]

  2. I made this comment in the DJF comments, but I’ll copy here: With Gose and Marisnick coming up, didn’t we figure on Rasmus moving out of centre at some point anyway? His bat and defense would seem to profile very well.

    DaveC

    July 31, 2012 at 11:33 am

    • I personally don’t think Rasmus has the bat for a corner spot, and it’s such a waste of his defense. His numbers this year have gone back to his career numbers, which are well above typical CF averages and well below those for the corner slots. He’s worth so much more to another team that doesn’t have to move him. Up into now, I thought that the biggest challenge the Jays faced was trading Rasmus now or in the offseason, because Gose HAS to play CF and the team is obviously really high on him.

      halejon

      July 31, 2012 at 1:04 pm

      • (And now I’m just praying that this is still actually going to happen at some point in the next three hours, and these arms are throw-in’s for some massive Rasmus for a LF deal, while they hand Gose the CF job a year or two early).

        halejon

        July 31, 2012 at 1:06 pm

  3. wrong: “the jays clearly haven’t thought so for some time” re relief pitchers as easy to replace. Relief pitchers are over-valued by the market – not just the Jays. They turned multiple one year relief pitchers into Rasmus. You don’t think Oliver has more value on the open market and is simply seen as “easy to replace” piece for contending rotations? I tire of bloggers who think they know more about the team than the people running the team or that they know more about how market forces work with fellow GMs in lieu of talking to other GMs. Yes its 40-innings, but these are the pieces that are moving at the deadlines for a lot of value that, statistically, we shudder and think it should be easy to replace. Deadlines are littered with relievers being moved.

    Zman

    July 31, 2012 at 11:36 am

    • Well, I greatly tire of commenters who vehemently criticize what I’m saying without even taking the time to read full sentences. Did you not see the bit after the comma where that comment is obviously about Snider’s value? I’m not even going to respond to the rest of your meaningless ramble except to briefly mock the concept that teams are barging down our door for a 41-year-old middle-reliever. Use your brain for a millisecond and show a little respect for your fellow fan and maybe we can talk some ball.

      halejon

      July 31, 2012 at 1:15 pm

      • To be fair, the “The Jays clearly haven’t thought so for some time” clause was a little confusing – I read this and was wondering what it was supposed to be referring to.

        If it refers to what comes after it, then you’re saying that the “Jays clearly don’t think that 24-year-olds with Snider’s pop and potential simply do not exist”… which means that the “Jays clearly do think that 24 year olds with Snider’s potential do exist”. (Which obviously doesn’t make any sense)

        I now realize you’re trying to say that the Jays don’t believe that Snider’s pop & potential exist… but your wording totally doesn’t convey that

        CG

        July 31, 2012 at 3:29 pm

      • See, now that’s a much more reasonable way to quibble with one of my clauses…I still think it makes sense — I AM trying to say that the “Jays clearly do think that 24-year-olds with Snider’s potential do exist”, since they haven’t been giving him playing time to develop, or protecting him at all costs. It’s a roundabout way, but I said it like that because I/we have no way of knowing whether they are acting in this way because they think that Snider is permanently flawed and doesn’t actually have that much potential, or that they’ll be able to find another prospect whose star is as bright. But yeah, the flow sucks after the previous sentence. My bad. I feel ashamed to have brought the level of erudition in the blogosphere down from such unscalable peaks.

        halejon

        July 31, 2012 at 4:09 pm

      • Haha, i still don’t think you’re getting my comment, but this conversation is getting absurd so i’ll drop it.

        Just note that the following two statements are NOT equal:
        1) “The Jays clearly do think that 24-year-olds with Snider’s potential do exist”
        2) “The Jays clearly do think that Snider’s potential exists”

        Read those two sentences carefully. #1 is what you essentially said in your original post. However, from your most recent comment, #2 is what you meant. They say completely different things.

        Ok this has gotten beyond dumb, i’m wasting my life away. Apparently I can’t leave any misunderstandings unresolved, especially ones as easily explainable as this one

        Unscalable peaks indeed

        CG

        July 31, 2012 at 9:16 pm

      • Gee, that didn’t seem like dropping it at all. How do you get me meaning 2) — is it where I said the exact opposite (that they haven’t been playing him or protecting him) or is where I elaborated on the exact opposite the second time (so that seems to mean they either think he’s permanently flawed or that he is easily replaceable)? And as I actually DID say, 1) is a dumbed down half-version of what I was getting at (that it could be either due to the team undervaluing Snider or overestimating the FA market). But thanks for the lesson, prof!

        halejon

        August 1, 2012 at 12:02 am


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