Comments on: Test Pattern http://bjays.wordpress.com/2008/11/13/test-pattern/ Tue, 03 Nov 2009 18:56:58 +0000 http://wordpress.com/ hourly 1 By: Cincinnatus C. http://bjays.wordpress.com/2008/11/13/test-pattern/#comment-5671 Cincinnatus C. Tue, 18 Nov 2008 20:44:37 +0000 http://bjays.wordpress.com/?p=1450#comment-5671 Moving Overbay would please the crowd that calls Wilner, but I don't know that that crowd is representative of the crowd generally (which, as far as I'm aware, doesn't come out in any more significant numbers when Halladay is pitching than when anyone else is pitching, so how much does it really care about individual players?). Moving Overbay would please the crowd that calls Wilner, but I don’t know that that crowd is representative of the crowd generally (which, as far as I’m aware, doesn’t come out in any more significant numbers when Halladay is pitching than when anyone else is pitching, so how much does it really care about individual players?).

]]> By: hugo http://bjays.wordpress.com/2008/11/13/test-pattern/#comment-5669 hugo Tue, 18 Nov 2008 01:54:10 +0000 http://bjays.wordpress.com/?p=1450#comment-5669 only problem with Ranjo (I normally hate this nickname formulation but in this case I like it because it rhymes with banjo, which Johnson looks like he plays in his spare time) is that he's said he only wants to play for a contender. If that's really his goal, he shouldn't have trouble finding one, and I'm not sure that we qualify. I would really like to make him a competitive offer though. only problem with Ranjo (I normally hate this nickname formulation but in this case I like it because it rhymes with banjo, which Johnson looks like he plays in his spare time) is that he’s said he only wants to play for a contender. If that’s really his goal, he shouldn’t have trouble finding one, and I’m not sure that we qualify. I would really like to make him a competitive offer though.

]]> By: Torgen http://bjays.wordpress.com/2008/11/13/test-pattern/#comment-5668 Torgen Mon, 17 Nov 2008 22:54:55 +0000 http://bjays.wordpress.com/?p=1450#comment-5668 My insurance plan would be Randy Johnson. Due to his age and the terrible job the DBacks defense did converting his balls in play into outs (O-xO of -28) he should be pretty cheap, but he had a tRA+ of 130 last year. Figure that goes down to 120ish in the AL, and he's almost as good as AJ's career year at half the price and no multi-year commitment. My insurance plan would be Randy Johnson. Due to his age and the terrible job the DBacks defense did converting his balls in play into outs (O-xO of -28) he should be pretty cheap, but he had a tRA+ of 130 last year. Figure that goes down to 120ish in the AL, and he’s almost as good as AJ’s career year at half the price and no multi-year commitment.

]]> By: hugo http://bjays.wordpress.com/2008/11/13/test-pattern/#comment-5667 hugo Mon, 17 Nov 2008 15:17:58 +0000 http://bjays.wordpress.com/?p=1450#comment-5667 I agree with Torgen - the problem with that rotation is the uncertainty in the health of McGowan and Janssen, not the quality of the arms before two of them underwent labrum surgery. If somehow both Casey and Dustin are healthy at or near the beginning of the season (unlikely), I don't think that's a bad rotation. The problem is, how can you count on that, without an insurance plan, and still say you're serious about competing? I agree with Torgen – the problem with that rotation is the uncertainty in the health of McGowan and Janssen, not the quality of the arms before two of them underwent labrum surgery. If somehow both Casey and Dustin are healthy at or near the beginning of the season (unlikely), I don’t think that’s a bad rotation. The problem is, how can you count on that, without an insurance plan, and still say you’re serious about competing?

]]> By: Torgen http://bjays.wordpress.com/2008/11/13/test-pattern/#comment-5665 Torgen Mon, 17 Nov 2008 01:49:00 +0000 http://bjays.wordpress.com/?p=1450#comment-5665 The tRA+es of those starters in their last seasons starting were 134, 103, 108, 104, and 97 respectively. Even if McGowan doesn't repeat his 124 from 2007, that's an above-average AL rotation independent of defense, and ours is good. The tRA+es of those starters in their last seasons starting were 134, 103, 108, 104, and 97 respectively. Even if McGowan doesn’t repeat his 124 from 2007, that’s an above-average AL rotation independent of defense, and ours is good.

]]> By: halejon http://bjays.wordpress.com/2008/11/13/test-pattern/#comment-5664 halejon Sun, 16 Nov 2008 23:42:30 +0000 http://bjays.wordpress.com/?p=1450#comment-5664 You know, it's true what they say about blogs. Without access to the clubhouse minor details like a 17-start audition just tend to fall through the cracks. At least I managed to not completely embarrass myself in the actual post by saying 'a full season'. You know, it’s true what they say about blogs. Without access to the clubhouse minor details like a 17-start audition just tend to fall through the cracks. At least I managed to not completely embarrass myself in the actual post by saying ‘a full season’.

]]> By: Torgen http://bjays.wordpress.com/2008/11/13/test-pattern/#comment-5663 Torgen Sun, 16 Nov 2008 20:22:15 +0000 http://bjays.wordpress.com/?p=1450#comment-5663 halejon, who's the guy who never started a major league game in his life in that rotation? halejon, who’s the guy who never started a major league game in his life in that rotation?

]]> By: halejon http://bjays.wordpress.com/2008/11/13/test-pattern/#comment-5660 halejon Sat, 15 Nov 2008 14:39:00 +0000 http://bjays.wordpress.com/?p=1450#comment-5660 Why do the Jays need to get rid of Overbay to get Lind and Snider in? The way I see it, they're in LF/DH right now and the only question is do you try to upgrade 1B. I'm with you on the potential decline - not just the comps which are kinda stupid sometimes but he's got "old player skills" anyway which tend to age badly. But the other hand, I kinda buy his broken hand was just starting to come back at the end of last season so maybe he's at low value right now - I would bet on rather than against him being in the .800's next season. And if he did that it's not a bad deal at all. Better than the FA market and <i>much</i> better than what Ibanez is asking for plus what we'd have to eat to switch horses in mid-stream. Longoriaing Snider should be a no-brainer if young players are still into being rooked like that. JP's probably out of that game after Wells/Hinske though. ARGH. Why do the Jays need to get rid of Overbay to get Lind and Snider in? The way I see it, they’re in LF/DH right now and the only question is do you try to upgrade 1B.

I’m with you on the potential decline – not just the comps which are kinda stupid sometimes but he’s got “old player skills” anyway which tend to age badly.

But the other hand, I kinda buy his broken hand was just starting to come back at the end of last season so maybe he’s at low value right now – I would bet on rather than against him being in the .800’s next season. And if he did that it’s not a bad deal at all. Better than the FA market and much better than what Ibanez is asking for plus what we’d have to eat to switch horses in mid-stream.

Longoriaing Snider should be a no-brainer if young players are still into being rooked like that. JP’s probably out of that game after Wells/Hinske though. ARGH.

]]> By: halejon http://bjays.wordpress.com/2008/11/13/test-pattern/#comment-5659 halejon Sat, 15 Nov 2008 14:26:52 +0000 http://bjays.wordpress.com/?p=1450#comment-5659 I love it...the Jays have gone from an unbelievable rotation to that utter, utter, joke - and you STILL had to include a pitcher that might not be ready for opening day and a guy who has never started a major league game in his life. I actually thought the Rolen trade was OK - as long as the rave reviews the doctors were giving meant "it's different this time and now it's really, truly, fixed for good" as opposed to "well, it looks good again but then we thought we fixed it last time as well". I'm not sure the former really exists for shoulder injuries, but evidently it was the latter. Someone roll up that medical opinion in a carpet along with Sirotka's. !@#$@#$@#!! I love it…the Jays have gone from an unbelievable rotation to that utter, utter, joke – and you STILL had to include a pitcher that might not be ready for opening day and a guy who has never started a major league game in his life.

I actually thought the Rolen trade was OK – as long as the rave reviews the doctors were giving meant “it’s different this time and now it’s really, truly, fixed for good” as opposed to “well, it looks good again but then we thought we fixed it last time as well”. I’m not sure the former really exists for shoulder injuries, but evidently it was the latter. Someone roll up that medical opinion in a carpet along with Sirotka’s. !@#$@#$@#!!

]]> By: Christopher Taylor http://bjays.wordpress.com/2008/11/13/test-pattern/#comment-5658 Christopher Taylor Sat, 15 Nov 2008 14:16:18 +0000 http://bjays.wordpress.com/?p=1450#comment-5658 I don't necessarily disagree with any of what you wrote, except that trading Overbay is probably a good idea (provided that not too much salary is eaten or if salary is eaten, a player comes back who can help the team). I believe this for a couple of reasons: Overbay's OPS is below average for his position. A look at Overbay's list of comps reveals something striking - they all fell off a cliff and were out of the game in their early 30s. Overbay's comps have looked liked this for a while. Overbay is much more likely to be a bad deal over the next two years than a good one. As the first moneyballer said, "It is better to trade a player a year too early than a year too late". Lastly, trading Overbay makes a lot of sense if JP wants to get both Lind and Snider in the lineup on opening day. I hope he does. Snider is a special case, give him LF and "Longoria" him with a long-term contract. Scratch all the above if JP eats the entire Overbay salary (or more than half even). I don’t necessarily disagree with any of what you wrote, except that trading Overbay is probably a good idea (provided that not too much salary is eaten or if salary is eaten, a player comes back who can help the team). I believe this for a couple of reasons: Overbay’s OPS is below average for his position. A look at Overbay’s list of comps reveals something striking – they all fell off a cliff and were out of the game in their early 30s. Overbay’s comps have looked liked this for a while. Overbay is much more likely to be a bad deal over the next two years than a good one. As the first moneyballer said, “It is better to trade a player a year too early than a year too late”.
Lastly, trading Overbay makes a lot of sense if JP wants to get both Lind and Snider in the lineup on opening day. I hope he does. Snider is a special case, give him LF and “Longoria” him with a long-term contract. Scratch all the above if JP eats the entire Overbay salary (or more than half even).

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