Comments on: Time to Find a New Position to Score From http://bjays.wordpress.com/2008/04/26/time-to-find-a-new-position-to-score-from/ Everything you always wanted to know about the Toronto Blue Jays, but were afraid to ask. Thu, 07 Aug 2008 23:15:22 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=MU By: hugo http://bjays.wordpress.com/2008/04/26/time-to-find-a-new-position-to-score-from/#comment-4272 hugo Tue, 29 Apr 2008 02:06:51 +0000 http://bjays.wordpress.com/?p=853#comment-4272 Well, it seems like our long (inter)national nightmare might be over. This might not be the worst time to play Boston, they just got swept by the Rays, aren't hitting well (although Lowell and Papi will be back, neither has been raking), and we miss Beckett and Buchholz. As stated above, they've been hit by a similar flu bug as well. We need to get back to .500 as soon as possible, can't linger under that line like we did last season for way too long. I guess the climb back starts tomorrow, luckily we don't have too far to go. Well, it seems like our long (inter)national nightmare might be over. This might not be the worst time to play Boston, they just got swept by the Rays, aren’t hitting well (although Lowell and Papi will be back, neither has been raking), and we miss Beckett and Buchholz. As stated above, they’ve been hit by a similar flu bug as well. We need to get back to .500 as soon as possible, can’t linger under that line like we did last season for way too long. I guess the climb back starts tomorrow, luckily we don’t have too far to go.

]]> By: johnny was http://bjays.wordpress.com/2008/04/26/time-to-find-a-new-position-to-score-from/#comment-4271 johnny was Mon, 28 Apr 2008 23:40:30 +0000 http://bjays.wordpress.com/?p=853#comment-4271 Or add a germ warfare lab to our offensive arsenal? Or add a germ warfare lab to our offensive arsenal?

]]> By: Torgen http://bjays.wordpress.com/2008/04/26/time-to-find-a-new-position-to-score-from/#comment-4270 Torgen Mon, 28 Apr 2008 22:59:27 +0000 http://bjays.wordpress.com/?p=853#comment-4270 Last year Vernon caught the flu (or at least, missed games with flu-like symptoms) at the end of April/start of May and we went on a 9 game losing streak. This year Vernon and Rios caught the flu (or at least, missed games with flu-like symptoms) late in April and we went on a 6 game losing streak. Oh, also, multiple Red Sox have missed games with flu-like symptoms and the Red Sox have gone on a 6 game losing streak. Maybe next year, invest in some flu shots? Last year Vernon caught the flu (or at least, missed games with flu-like symptoms) at the end of April/start of May and we went on a 9 game losing streak. This year Vernon and Rios caught the flu (or at least, missed games with flu-like symptoms) late in April and we went on a 6 game losing streak. Oh, also, multiple Red Sox have missed games with flu-like symptoms and the Red Sox have gone on a 6 game losing streak. Maybe next year, invest in some flu shots?

]]> By: halejon http://bjays.wordpress.com/2008/04/26/time-to-find-a-new-position-to-score-from/#comment-4269 halejon Mon, 28 Apr 2008 22:27:48 +0000 http://bjays.wordpress.com/?p=853#comment-4269 One thing to keep in mind is that batters ALWAYS hit better with runners on base (any runners) due to the defensive disruption. So those numbers with runners on are actually pretty bad. Is it a coincidence? More RISP opportunities have to come with 2 outs because there so many at bats mixed in with 0 outs leading off the inning, and batters get moved along with "productive" outs over an inning. And if you can't drive in runners, period, then you're going to get more chances with them with two outs. I mean, if you hit 0/100 (or, errr...11/100), then every double you get before 2 outs is going to be a RISP with 2 outs as well. I know what you're saying, but it's a bit of a chicken and egg situation here unless there's somewhere to get a split by risp <i>and</i> outs. And BABIP isn't glued to .300 like it is for pitchers, so if Boston is hitting .350 you could also argue that they're just really good hitters so far... All this happened last year as well, and people freaked out, and then they ended up really good with RISP on average. And lazy reporters STILL refer to their problems with RISP last year. One thing to keep in mind is that batters ALWAYS hit better with runners on base (any runners) due to the defensive disruption. So those numbers with runners on are actually pretty bad.

Is it a coincidence? More RISP opportunities have to come with 2 outs because there so many at bats mixed in with 0 outs leading off the inning, and batters get moved along with “productive” outs over an inning. And if you can’t drive in runners, period, then you’re going to get more chances with them with two outs. I mean, if you hit 0/100 (or, errr…11/100), then every double you get before 2 outs is going to be a RISP with 2 outs as well. I know what you’re saying, but it’s a bit of a chicken and egg situation here unless there’s somewhere to get a split by risp and outs.

And BABIP isn’t glued to .300 like it is for pitchers, so if Boston is hitting .350 you could also argue that they’re just really good hitters so far…

All this happened last year as well, and people freaked out, and then they ended up really good with RISP on average. And lazy reporters STILL refer to their problems with RISP last year.

]]> By: Andrew http://bjays.wordpress.com/2008/04/26/time-to-find-a-new-position-to-score-from/#comment-4268 Andrew Mon, 28 Apr 2008 20:03:22 +0000 http://bjays.wordpress.com/?p=853#comment-4268 We've passed the 400 AB plateau with the Runners on/Empty split. With no runners on base: .272/.363/.388 OPS 109 With runners on: .243/.329/.356 OPS 91 They are 56/260 with RISP (.215) for the season. The real problem IMHO, is hitting with 2 outs. 0 outs: .252/.353/.385 OPS 106 (.277 BABIP) 1 outs: .298/.369/.406 OPS 116 (.319) 2 outs: .218/.312/.317 OPS 75 (.248) It's a coincidence that most of our RISP have come with 2 outs. There are a lot of ways to manufacture runs... one of them involves wasting 2 outs moving a leadoff to 3rd. You then have to rely on the batter to safely hit in order to score the run. The Jays have been a little unlucky with their 2 out hits, a little lucky with their 1 out hits, and right on normal with their 0 out actions. Also, Boston has a .350 BABIP with RISP so you can argue their success is largely luck driven. It's funny what a bad or good couple of weeks can do for a fan's psyche. And the stats. We’ve passed the 400 AB plateau with the Runners on/Empty split.

With no runners on base: .272/.363/.388 OPS 109
With runners on: .243/.329/.356 OPS 91

They are 56/260 with RISP (.215) for the season.

The real problem IMHO, is hitting with 2 outs.

0 outs: .252/.353/.385 OPS 106 (.277 BABIP)
1 outs: .298/.369/.406 OPS 116 (.319)
2 outs: .218/.312/.317 OPS 75 (.24 8)

It’s a coincidence that most of our RISP have come with 2 outs. There are a lot of ways to manufacture runs… one of them involves wasting 2 outs moving a leadoff to 3rd. You then have to rely on the batter to safely hit in order to score the run. The Jays have been a little unlucky with their 2 out hits, a little lucky with their 1 out hits, and right on normal with their 0 out actions.

Also, Boston has a .350 BABIP with RISP so you can argue their success is largely luck driven. It’s funny what a bad or good couple of weeks can do for a fan’s psyche. And the stats.

]]> By: halejon http://bjays.wordpress.com/2008/04/26/time-to-find-a-new-position-to-score-from/#comment-4267 halejon Mon, 28 Apr 2008 19:41:52 +0000 http://bjays.wordpress.com/?p=853#comment-4267 Well, that's the way the Yankees typically score runs. And we're never going to be able to keep up to them by doing that, so we have to find an alternative method. Well, that’s the way the Yankees typically score runs. And we’re never going to be able to keep up to them by doing that, so we have to find an alternative method.

]]> By: Matthew King http://bjays.wordpress.com/2008/04/26/time-to-find-a-new-position-to-score-from/#comment-4265 Matthew King Mon, 28 Apr 2008 16:07:00 +0000 http://bjays.wordpress.com/?p=853#comment-4265 I liked how they scored from first on a single, and didn't score from second on a double. I liked how they scored from first on a single, and didn’t score from second on a double.

]]> By: halejon http://bjays.wordpress.com/2008/04/26/time-to-find-a-new-position-to-score-from/#comment-4258 halejon Mon, 28 Apr 2008 03:41:13 +0000 http://bjays.wordpress.com/?p=853#comment-4258 Hahaha, well I guess that's what it takes. Just keep running. What a brutal play by Guillen. Hahaha, well I guess that’s what it takes. Just keep running. What a brutal play by Guillen.

]]> By: Torgen http://bjays.wordpress.com/2008/04/26/time-to-find-a-new-position-to-score-from/#comment-4254 Torgen Sun, 27 Apr 2008 21:08:08 +0000 http://bjays.wordpress.com/?p=853#comment-4254 I mean, it's clear that the post title was a joke, but Rios scored from first on a Rolen single today. I mean, it’s clear that the post title was a joke, but Rios scored from first on a Rolen single today.

]]> By: WillRain http://bjays.wordpress.com/2008/04/26/time-to-find-a-new-position-to-score-from/#comment-4253 WillRain Sun, 27 Apr 2008 19:56:08 +0000 http://bjays.wordpress.com/?p=853#comment-4253 Aren't you skewing the numbers even more to take their overall average AFTER that slide? Hadn't you ought to figure that probability based on what their avg w/RISP was BEFORE the last 100 opportunities? Aren’t you skewing the numbers even more to take their overall average AFTER that slide? Hadn’t you ought to figure that probability based on what their avg w/RISP was BEFORE the last 100 opportunities?

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